PodcastThe Monetary Matters NetworkDeiya Pernas

These Power Stocks (Not Semis) Are The Real AI Beneficiaries, Say Investing Brother Duo Up 1,300%

The discussion focuses on AI's expanding power and infrastructure demands, the effects of cheaper open-weight models, and the resulting opportunities in data centers, cybersecurity, robotics, and power generation. It also examines how AI is challenging software moats and lower-value freelance work while creating pressure for companies to build stronger application-layer advantages. The guests favor selective, valuation-conscious investing, highlighting opportunities in Capstone, Tenable, Upwork, and cross-border fintech while emphasizing leverage, concentration, and uncertain capital returns as key risks.

AI InfrastructureArtificial IntelligenceEnergy MarketsCybersecurityInvestment StrategyRisk Management

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Key Takeaways

Open-weight AI could pressure frontier-model pricing and create an initial air pocket in frontier-model demand, but lower costs may broaden enterprise usage through a Jevons-paradox effect and increase demand for cloud infrastructure and GPUs. This dynamic also challenges software moats as AI agents have cut the cost of producing production-ready code by roughly 90%–95%.

AI infrastructure growth is colliding with physical constraints: AI could reach roughly 20% of U.S. grid demand, or about 100 gigawatts, by 2030, while grid interconnection queues run 18–24 months. Hyperscalers are therefore pursuing behind-the-meter power, creating opportunities for Capstone's one-to-three-month turbine deliveries and Stabilis Solutions' portable natural-gas supply for data centers without pipeline access.

The expansion of distributed AI computing should increase demand for data-center connectivity, with bandwidth between sites potentially needing to grow nearly 15 times as hyperscalers use more geographically dispersed facilities. Smart Optics is positioned around the hardware and software that convert data to light and transmit it over fiber, while the broader power buildout remains exposed to transmission bottlenecks.

AI is simultaneously expanding the need for cybersecurity and weakening the cost barrier for attackers: Tenable maps assets, scans code, prioritizes vulnerabilities, and helps remediate them with frontier-model assistance, while AI lowers the cost of discovering vulnerabilities and identity attacks remain a risk. The guests expect Tenable's growth to accelerate as customers shift toward exposure management, and its roughly 4-times EV-to-sales valuation is well below the more than 20-times multiples cited for CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks.

The episode presents humanoid robotics as a potentially transformative long-term industry because AI and high-fidelity physics simulations could provide the control system, but VPG's strain gauges and sensors are still being supplied to customer programs at the prototype stage. That contrast underscores the difference between a large potential market and currently validated commercial demand.

TECHNOLOGY

Open-Weight AI — The guest argues that open-weight models could reduce pricing power for frontier-model providers while increasing demand for cloud infrastructure and GPUs. Lower model costs could also revive enterprise AI usage through a Jevons-paradox effect, although frontier-model demand could initially face an air pocket.

“So if you're in a technology stack and if your compliment gets commoditized a demand increases to all the other layers…”—

AI Power Demand — The guest projects that AI could reach roughly 20% of total U.S. energy-grid demand by 2030, or about 100 gigawatts. Transmission constraints and 18–24-month grid-interconnection queues are forcing hyperscalers to secure their own power.

“for the last 20 years or so essentially the amount the energy demand of the United States has been roughly the same around 4,000 terowatt hours because appliances have been…”—

Data-Center Bandwidth — As hyperscalers distribute computing across multiple smaller geographic sites, bandwidth between data centers may need to expand nearly 15 times. Smart Optics supplies hardware and software that convert data into light, transmit it over fiber, and modulate the signal.

“And as a result these hyperscalers are going to have to now bridge data centers in different geographic locations together…”—

MARKETS

Index Vulnerability — The S&P 500 is vulnerable because its top 10 constituents account for roughly 30%–40% of index weight, while hyperscalers face a step-function increase in capital spending with uncertain returns. Their average valuation is roughly 10 times EV-to-sales, and grid bottlenecks are increasing the need for behind-the-meter power.

“It's it's a very top weighted index obviously you have you know the top 10 names make up close to 30 40% of the index weight and a lot of…”—

Capstone Power — Capstone is favored over Bloom Energy because it trades at roughly 3 times revenue versus Bloom's 15–20 times and can deliver turbines in one to three months rather than the 18–24 months required for larger systems. It operates at about 10% capacity and could produce roughly one gigawatt annually on three shifts, serving data halls, edge data centers, and manufacturing facilities.

“Bloom Energy is trading at I think the last time I looked at 15 20 times revenue and capstone is trading on the scale of three times…”—

Stabilis Gas — Stabilis Solutions supplies portable natural gas to data centers without pipeline access by liquefying, transporting, storing, and vaporizing the fuel. A data-center contract worth roughly a couple hundred million dollars over two years and expected growth in SpaceX launches are cited as potential drivers, while the company's approximately $75 million market capitalization makes it speculative.

“essentially you have for data centers that don't have access to a pipeline, you need portable natural gas…”—

FORECASTS

Tenable Growth — The guests expect Tenable's growth to accelerate as cybersecurity shifts toward exposure management and customers migrate to its platform. They cite higher upsell rates and customer movement onto the exposure-management platform as early evidence.

“We think growth retainable is going to accelerate given the opportunity. Exactly. Like you said we don't you know our perspective is that investing is all about anticipating the future.”—

Intro

The guests argue that cheaper open-weight models should expand AI demand for hyperscalers and GPU infrastructure, even as frontier-model pricing power declines.

AI & Hyperscalers

They explain why hyperscaler capital spending creates index vulnerability and identify non-semiconductor beneficiaries that can convert compute demand into attractive economics.

Tech Hardware

The discussion contrasts mainstream semiconductor exposure with opportunities in AI-linked hardware, including energy systems, bandwidth equipment, and robotics sensors.

"Bring Your Own Power": Capstone Energy & Stabilis Solutions

Capstone’s small natural-gas microturbines and Stabilis’s virtual-pipeline services are presented as valuation-conscious ways to supply constrained data centers and other facilities.

Bandwidth & SmartOptics

Smart Optics is positioned to benefit as geographically dispersed data centers require substantially more optical bandwidth, while VPG offers exposure to humanoid robotics hardware.

Cybersecurity & Tenable

AI is making traditional software vulnerabilities easier to discover and exploit, creating demand for Tenable’s exposure-management platform at a valuation discount to larger cybersecurity peers.

SaaSpocalypse: Where Is It Correct, Where Is It Not Correct? (Upwork)

The guests reject a blanket SaaSpocalypse view, arguing that AI threatens low-value freelance work and weak software moats while supporting defensible platforms such as Upwork and Tenable.

Meta

They explain why Meta was once an attractive contrarian investment but became less compelling after disappointing open-source AI progress, heavy spending, and uncertain capital allocation.

Payments: Wise and Remitly

Wise and Remitly are favored for cross-border money movement, while Payoneer offers a leveraged value opportunity and stablecoins remain a limited near-term threat to consumer remittances.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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