De-Globalization Is Forcing Nations Worldwide To Choose A Side | Michael Every

The episode presents U.S.-backed stablecoins as both a financial and geopolitical instrument: they could expand dollar-based payment access, support Treasury-bill demand, and pressure countries to align with the U.S. financial system. Europe faces a dilemma because restricting foreign stablecoins could limit access to dollar-linked transactions while domestic alternatives may lack comparable international reach.

Stablecoins are distinguished from Federal Reserve quantitative easing because they could create dollar-like instruments outside the United States without directly expanding the domestic money supply. If the Clarity Act is enacted, the speakers expect adoption could accelerate by 2027, potentially pushing T-bill rates lower as emerging-market demand increases.

Michael Every argues that the United States is moving toward neo-mercantilist reindustrialization, using government and private industry to rebuild physical production and strategic power despite its large trade deficit. This shift is connected to a broader reassessment in which countries may prioritize physical goods and supply networks over finance’s traditional primacy.

The dollar’s reserve-currency role remains supported by dollar-based trade, energy arrangements, and the large eurodollar system, even as Treasury policy could produce several weak months and sharp two-way volatility. The speakers view a near-term dollar collapse as unlikely because there is no clear alternative currency, while stablecoins could extend dollar access internationally.

The Iran and Ukraine conflicts are portrayed as exposing gaps in U.S. military preparedness, particularly inadequate drone defenses, while North Korean support for Russia and Ukraine’s rapidly adapting drone ecosystem illustrate how warfare is changing. A broader escalation involving Iran, Russia, and NATO is presented as a risk scenario that could overwhelm current efforts to contain market damage.

The Middle East conflict is framed as a contest over energy infrastructure and payment currencies, with possible consequences for pipelines, dollar-linked systems, and regional influence. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, geopolitical risk could permanently redirect oil purchases toward more predictable suppliers in the Americas, Mexico, and Canada.

Diesel and refined products may be a more immediate energy vulnerability than crude oil or natural gas because the Middle East lacks sufficient refinery capacity. The speakers warn that continued pressure on Iran could lead to diesel shortages, more aggressive economic statecraft, and a shift from global price rationing toward supply rationing that prioritizes U.S. needs.

AI infrastructure is being driven by the government’s strategic goal of winning the AI race, with hyperscalers deploying capital rapidly without direct government financing. The buildout could face local political resistance because of higher electricity bills, land-use changes, and job displacement unless communities receive visible benefits such as lower energy costs or public funds.