PodcastCommodity CultureJohn Paul Backwell

Global Energy 'NEVER Been More Exposed', Here's How We Get Out of This

The discussion centres on a strategic shift toward domestic energy supply and security, driven by geopolitical shocks that have elevated investment and nuclear commitments while exposing chokepoints that account for roughly 20% of global oil. Technology notes highlighted green hydrogen's pathway to competitiveness with Fusion Fuel’s Bright Hydrogen pipeline, while market coverage emphasised tangible commercial milestones—from a bio‑steam plant going live to a pending Royal Uranium acquisition that would add 19 royalties—and structural upside from a widening uranium supply deficit. Despite softer near‑term volumes, contract wins, price pass‑through and multi‑year backlogs provide revenue visibility, and management projects the group to reach sustainable profitability by 2027 amid a long, multi‑decade investment cycle.

Energy SecurityEnergy TransitionOilCommoditiesSupply ChainsInvestment Strategy

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Key Takeaways

Management is positioning the company as a technology‑agnostic, diversified microcap across nuclear, gas, hydrogen and biomass to capture a long runway of demand: the IEA expects >30% energy demand growth by 2040 and governments are reprioritizing energy security after recent shocks.

Geopolitical shocks (Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Gulf shipping tensions) have pushed policy toward domestic supply and nuclear expansion and prompted utilities to urgently source non‑Russian fuels, favoring multi‑fuel, multi‑jurisdiction platform businesses over single‑technology bets.

The UAE footprint and last‑mile distribution assets provide defensive, recurring cash flow: management reports UAE operations remained resilient amid regional attacks, and Alola Gas serves >38,000 customers, generated roughly $16m last year and maintains ~40% margins via rapid cylinder delivery plus bulk logistics.

Fusion Fuel’s Bright Hydrogen shows tangible commercial progress (57 MW active pipeline, 15 MW front‑end design contract, €30m infrastructure vehicle) and while electrolytic hydrogen currently costs ~3–6x natural gas, falling renewable and electrolyser costs plus regulatory support could make targeted industrial applications commercially viable within 3–5 years — highlighted by a Spanish cement project moving into buildout.

GEO-POLITICS

Energy Realignment — After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent shipping/Gulf tensions, governments have reprioritized energy security, tightening domestic‑supply policies; vulnerable choke points now account for roughly 20% of global oil, nuclear expansion commitments are significant, and global energy investment hit an all‑time high in 2024.

“And after Ukraine, more than 30 countries over overhauled their energy policies to prioritize their domestic supply…”—

Supply Diversification — Western utilities are urgently sourcing non‑Russian supply due to sanctions, and investors are favouring platform businesses that span multiple fuel types and geographies, which is reshaping procurement and capital allocation across the sector.

“Western utilities as we've seen are urgently trying to source non-Russian supply following the sanctions.”—

TECHNOLOGY

Green Hydrogen — Green hydrogen via electrolysis can be produced domestically where renewables and water exist and can substitute for fossil fuels in heavy industry, transport and power; Fusion Fuel’s Bright Hydrogen has a 57 MW active pipeline, a 15 MW front‑end design contract and a €30m infrastructure vehicle, and although current costs are ~3–6x natural gas, electrolyser learning, falling renewable costs and regulatory levers could make targeted industrial use commercially viable within 3–5 years.

“Then also green hydrogen though it's not not a perfect solution but it can be produced wherever you've got renewables and water. So you can produce it domestically…”—

MARKETS

Bio‑steam Launch — The Bio Steam Energy JV in South Africa replaces coal‑fired industrial boilers with waste‑biomass systems; Fairfield Dairy’s first site is live and billing, projects earn revenue from steam contracts plus carbon credits, and management says the technology is bankable with project run‑rates exceeding 12%, though costs remain higher than fossil alternatives.

“Fairfield's got another six sites and once we've completed this site we're actually going live producing steam this week at the first site and then we'll be moving moving on…”—

Royal Acquisition — Fusion Fuel has signed to acquire Royal Uranium (transaction cited as 75–100% though likely 100%), subject to shareholder approval at an EGM expected in May 2026; completion would add a 19‑royalty portfolio and management expects it to support a NAV rerating.

“We signed to acquire 100% of Royal uranium and or 75 to 100% but it's looking like it's going to be 100%…”—

Uranium Deficit — The incoming portfolio includes 19 royalties (16 uranium, 3 natural gas) concentrated in premier jurisdictions including the Athabasca Basin; royalties typically pay ~1–2% NSR and generate profit without capital obligations, while global uranium production (~173 million lbs) lags reactor demand (>200 million lbs), creating a widening supply deficit because new mines take 10+ years to develop.

“raw uranium holds 19 strategic royalties. 16 of those are uranium royalties. Three of them are natural gas. They're across premier jurisdictions…”—

FORECASTS

Long Runway — The IEA projects over 30% energy demand growth by 2040 (driven in part by AI data centers), and management views the market as in the 'early innings' of a multi‑decade investment cycle analogous to the 1970s—implying sustained capital deployment and long‑term opportunity for next‑generation energy companies.

“With the IEA projecting over 30% demand growth by 2040 with everything that's going on the world you know the rise of AI data centers etc.”—

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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