The Man Who Called the Dot-Com Crash Says Bitcoin Will Go to Zero
Mark Moss presents a venture-capital-style framework for valuing Bitcoin by estimating the future size of the assets people use to preserve wealth and the share Bitcoin could capture. His model produces outcomes ranging from about $1 million per Bitcoin in 2030 to $43 million in 2050 under a 15% market-share scenario, and he concludes that the model points to substantial long-term growth while acknowledging that its projections depend on assumptions.
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Moss models Bitcoin against a broad store-of-value basket that includes real estate, equities, bonds, money, gold, and collectibles, rather than projecting Bitcoin's past price or adoption trends.
The model estimates the store-of-value basket at about $994 trillion in 2025, up from about $300 trillion in 2010.
Using projections from the IMF, BIS, and Congressional Budget Office, Moss's reference case puts the basket at about $1.5 quadrillion in 2030, $3 quadrillion in 2040, and $6 quadrillion in 2050.
Moss says he expects the IMF and BIS projections to underestimate future money and debt creation because he believes their historical projections have been too conservative.
In Moss's scenario where Bitcoin captures 1.5% of the basket by 2030, his model yields a $21 trillion market capitalization and about $1 million per Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin captures 8% of the basket by 2040, Moss's model estimates a $239 trillion market capitalization and about $11 million per Bitcoin.
The Man Who Called the Dot-Com Crash Says Bitcoin Will Go to Zero
Mark Moss contrasts Jeremy Grantham’s warning that Bitcoin could approach zero with his own model, which estimates potential values above $27 million per coin under one scenario.
Everyone Is Guessing Bitcoin’s Price. So I Built a Model
Moss argues that many Bitcoin forecasts extrapolate its past performance, then introduces his alternative approach: underwriting Bitcoin’s possible future markets using venture-capital methods.
The Venture Capital Approach to Valuing Bitcoin
Using Uber as an example, Moss explains how venture investors estimate a company’s value by identifying disrupted markets, projecting market growth, and assessing achievable market share.
What Markets Is Bitcoin Disrupting?
Moss frames Bitcoin as competing for wealth preservation across gold, equities, real estate, bonds, money, and collectibles, then estimates the basket’s size and future growth using macroeconomic data.
How Much Market Share Could Bitcoin Capture?
Moss says Bitcoin could capture modest shares of existing assets without making those markets disappear, citing its role as a savings alternative and growing access through financial advisers and institutions.
The Path to $1M, $11M, and $43M Bitcoin
Moss’s model projects roughly $1 million per Bitcoin at 1.5% market share by 2030, $11 million at 8% by 2040, and $43 million at 15% by 2050, while emphasizing that these are assumption-dependent scenarios.
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Important Disclaimers
Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.
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