PodcastBenjamin CowenGuy

NFA Live! Where the Next Bull Run is Hiding

The conversation centers on concentrated AI-driven hardware demand—especially memory and chips—backed by a Micron beat and continued hyperscaler capex, alongside a government and corporate push into quantum. Macro signals include an M2 rebound into 2026 and a recent drop in real disposable income, which the hosts use to argue for inflation‑hedging assets. Markets feature ample deployable liquidity in stablecoins and corporate cash, a cooled precious‑metals mini‑rally, and event‑driven trades such as a PolyMarket bet and a Miami conference. Timing views lean on midterm seasonal patterns and multi‑year moving averages for Bitcoin support levels near ~$57K and ~$47K.

AI InfrastructureEconomic GrowthRisk ManagementMarket LiquidityCrypto MarketsCommodities

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Key Takeaways

Hyperscaler capex is funneling the AI investment cycle into downstream hardware—particularly memory and chips—making that concentrated sector the current bull market; Micron's fiscal Q3 beat and very strong guidance (cited structural demand from semi‑autonomous cars and humanoid robots needing many times today's memory) support durable memory demand but the rally could stall if hyperscalers scale back spending.

A renewed liquidity 'supercycle'—hosts say M2 contracted through 2022 but is expanding into 2026—combined with large pools of deployable capital (stablecoins in the low‑hundreds of billions and major cash holders like Berkshire/Warren Buffett) creates ample dry powder that could sustain asset rallies and help fuel the expected rotation back into Bitcoin toward Q4, although a divided Fed could alter timing.

With real disposable income recently turning negative for the first time in about 2.5 years, the hosts argue fiat purchasing power is eroding and recommend holding inflation‑hedging assets (specifically Bitcoin) rather than sitting in cash, emphasizing long time‑in‑market over attempting to trade short‑term bottoms or tops.

TECHNOLOGY

AI Hardware — The AI investment cycle is routing hyperscaler capex into downstream hardware—especially memory and chips—making that sector the focal point of the current bull market. The trade is concentrated and depends on continued hyperscaler spending; a pullback there could stall memory and chip momentum.

“And the answer it to you know to some extent is memory and chips.”—

Micron Beat — Micron materially beat fiscal Q3 revenue and EPS expectations and issued very strong next‑quarter guidance. Management cited structural demand—semi‑autonomous cars and humanoid robots needing multiple times today's memory—supporting demand beyond data centers.

“They reported fiscal thirdarter revenue of $41.5 billion. that was but 35.5 billion was the expected number.”—

ECONOMY

M2 Rebound — Hosts argue M2 contracted through 2022 but is expanding again into 2026, describing a renewed liquidity 'supercycle.' They add that the Fed appears divided ahead of upcoming FOMC meetings, with a likely split among members over further rate hikes.

“This is the M2 money supply from 2018 up and to the right. Sounds pretty good. These are the midterm years. These are the bad bare years…”—

MARKETS

Gold Pause — Gold and silver had a strong run but gold has since pulled back from those highs. The hosts view the earlier mini‑bull in precious metals as cooled for now.

“Do you remember not so long ago, gold and silver were absolutely ripping.”—

Dry Powder — Speakers point to large pools of off‑market capital: stablecoins (per DeFiLlama) in the low‑hundreds of billions and major holders like Berkshire Hathaway/Warren Buffett sitting on very large cash balances. This represents significant deployable liquidity.

“So, of course, they can say that's the reason for it. That's the reason for all this different volatility and the bare markets…”—

Conference — Organizers confirmed an in‑person Miami conference in November with a Friday welcome reception and a full Saturday program. They recommend local hotels, are still adding speakers, and are expanding the agenda beyond crypto into areas like real estate.

“It's going to be in November and the rest of the United States is going to be cold as hell.”—

FORECASTS

Midterm Timing — Hosts describe a midterm‑year pattern: equities often see a shallow June correction, rally into late summer, then suffer a larger end‑of‑cycle drop. They expect the bull to rotate back into Bitcoin likely closer to Q4 and emphasize four‑year cycles as a robust timing signal.

“A lot of times in midterm years, the stock market will sort of get a correction in June, kind of a shallow correction, like 5 to 10%…”—

Channel Promos & AI Banter

Hosts open with channel shoutouts, light AI job-replacement banter, and set the episode's tone toward locating the current bull market.

Memory & Chip Rally

Guy argues the current bull is concentrated in AI-driven hardware demand—not crypto—pointing to localized mini‑bulls in memory and semiconductor supply chains.

Micron Earnings Beat

The hosts unpack Micron's large revenue and EPS beat, its aggressive guidance, and implications for sustained memory demand from hyperscalers and future products.

Equities To Crypto Rotation

Ben outlines a likely midterm-year shallow correction in equities, a summer rally, and a potential rotation back to Bitcoin toward Q4.

Four‑Year Bitcoin Cycle

The panel discusses the persistence of the four‑year Bitcoin cycle, invoking pattern recognition as a useful predictive tool until it proves wrong.

Bitcoin Moving Averages

Hosts review long‑term moving averages, identifying key Bitcoin support zones roughly near $57K (200‑week) and $47K (350‑week).

Macro Liquidity Signals

Discussion of M2 trends (rebound into 2026), a split Fed outlook on future rate moves, geopolitical risks, and large pools of deployable cash and stablecoins.

Deploy Or Sit Out?

Debate on holding cash versus owning assets to hedge inflation: consensus favors keeping cash reserves but remaining deployed in inflation‑hedging assets over the long term.

PolyMarket Bet & ITC

Rob announces a PolyMarket bet about Guy attending the ITC Miami conference, promotes the event, and outlines dates and featured guests.

Conference Logistics

The hosts cover venue hotels, preliminary schedule (welcome drinks Friday, main conference Saturday), and speaker outreach for a broader non‑crypto focus.

World Cup & Cultural Banter

Lighthearted segment on the World Cup, soccer vs. American sports nomenclature, and some casual host banter about thumbnails and subscriber counts.

Quantum And Sign‑Off

Quick notes on quantum computing interest and a final round of Q&A, event reminders, plugs, and the hosts' sign‑off.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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