PodcastThe Wolf Of All StreetsScott Melker

Bitcoin Faces Major FED Decision - Should We Be Concerned?

Investors are reallocating capital from crypto to AI compute because compute is monetizable and AI revenue growth (e.g., Anthropic ~50x YoY) far outpaces stablecoin growth (≈+50% YoY), which helps explain weak BTC inflows. Regulatory clarity, offshore platforms' faster product rollout, and Coinbase's push into tokenized real‑world assets and pre‑IPO products are shaping where new crypto liquidity and services will appear. Market dynamics include tiny U.S. BTC perp open interest (~$2M) versus multi‑billion offshore flows, a potential volatile SpaceX move given ~4.2% float and imminent S&P inclusion, and the prospect that stablecoins could free roughly $4–5 billion in liquidity for firms like Western Union.

Crypto MarketsMonetary PolicyAI InfrastructureMarket LiquidityStablecoinsCrypto Regulation

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Key Takeaways

Investors are reallocating capital from Bitcoin toward AI compute because compute can be directly monetized (e.g., rented to Anthropic or Google) and some AI firms show explosive revenue (speakers cite ~50x YoY for Anthropic), while crypto demand indicators like stablecoin growth (~+50% YoY) and Bitcoin itself (~$65k) look modest by comparison.

Regulatory frictions in the U.S. are ceding product and flow advantages to offshore venues: U.S. Bitcoin perpetual open interest is tiny (~$2M) while offshore platforms handle multi‑billion daily flows, because offshore operators can ship features faster without U.S. regulatory constraints.

Coinbase is pushing a broad product slate—pre‑IPO perpetuals for names like SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic, 24/7 options with high leverage, an SEC‑registered AI advisor (RAIA), and tokenized one‑to‑one stocks—to capture demand for non‑Bitcoin perps and broaden retail/institutional offerings as markets evolve.

On‑chain adoption hinges on tradable real‑world assets: platforms that made stocks, oil, silver and other commodities tradable on‑chain saw meaningful traction, and widespread stablecoin usage could materially free liquidity (an analyst argues Western Union might release roughly $4–5 billion in local cash if stablecoins replace some holdings).

TECHNOLOGY

AI vs Bitcoin — Speakers say investors are allocating capital to AI compute infrastructure instead of Bitcoin because compute can be monetized (e.g., rented to firms like Anthropic or Google). That helps explain weak capital inflows into BTC today despite longer‑term bullish views on crypto.

“I think I've been saying buy compute, sell Bitcoin for the last little while…”—

AI vs Stablecoins — Speakers note stablecoin growth (≈+50% YoY) is modest relative to explosive revenue gains at some AI firms (speakers cite ~50x YoY for Anthropic). That divergence helps explain why investors favor AI capex over crypto.

“Like stable coins is up like 50% year-over-year, which sure that's good, but have you seen how fast like anthropics revenues are growing?”—

Coinbase Products — Coinbase is rolling out pre‑IPO perpetuals for companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, 24/7 options on crypto and equities with high advertised leverage, an SEC‑registered AI advisor (RAIA), and tokenized 1:1 backed stocks. This signals a push to broaden retail and institutional offerings.

“I think they're adding preip. So, they got preipo pers, right? So you'll be able to trade SpaceX open open AI anthropic as they come out.”—

ECONOMY

Regulation Rollout — Because some offshore platforms aren't subject to U.S. regulation, they can ship features faster and experiment more. U.S. incumbents must navigate regulatory constraints, which will influence where and how new crypto products appear.

“Coinbase will provide per in the US and then Hyperliquid will do it everywhere else that Coinbase isn't available.”—

Token Rights — Speakers say the absence of clear legal rights attached to tokens discourages investors from buying or holding many altcoins. That shifts capital toward equity exposures and weakens demand in token markets.

“Otherwise, though, it's it's mainly looking at the equity side because the problem with altcoins right now is there's just because there's no legal rights in any of these tokens…”—

Clarity Act — Speakers suggest regulatory clarity — for example, through legislation like the proposed Clarity Act — would likely help token markets by defining what tokens are and how they can be traded or held. They caution benefits may take time to materialize.

“And again, maybe the maybe the Clarity Act is going to is going to help with this…”—

MARKETS

Capex Risk — Speakers warn that if customers migrate to cheaper AI models instead of Anthropic or OpenAI, those firms' revenues and the 'capex and bottleneck' trade supporting many stocks could shrink. They add current demand for intelligence remains very strong, so the net impact is uncertain.

“Are there, you know, the big discussion right now is everyone going to start using the cheaper models instead of using Anthropic and Open AI and is that going to…”—

Perpetuals Offshore — Open interest on U.S. Bitcoin perpetuals is extremely low — roughly $2M, speakers say — while offshore venues like Hyperliquid handle multi‑billion daily flows. Speakers infer U.S. traders show little appetite for Bitcoin perps but may favor perps on non‑Bitcoin assets such as SpaceX.

“It was like two the open interest on Cali Bitcoin per was like two $2 million or something, right? I think it's $9 billion on any given day on hyperlquid.”—

SpaceX Float — Only a small fraction of SpaceX stock is tradable today — about ~4.2% float — and the first tranche doesn't unlock until early August. Combined with imminent S&P inclusion and tiny supply, that could trigger outsized buying and a rapid run higher, though similar low‑float setups have produced large post‑run selloffs historically.

“Well, have you So, first of all, the reason why it's way out of control is, and this goes back to the crypto people understand this, it's a lowflat high…”—

Warsh's First FOMC Today — Should You Be Terrified Of A $500 Move?

Kevin Worsh’s first FOMC likely results in a pause rather than an emergency hike, with speakers arguing his moves won’t materially shock Bitcoin absent further catalysts.

"There's No Way He's Hiking Today — Oil Is Already Coming Down"

Speakers note that oil easing (around $75) gives the Fed cover to remain paused, reducing near‑term inflation pressure and the chance of an immediate hike.

"Is Warsh Trump's Puppet? Yes. 100%."

Both guests express skepticism that Worsh will act independently, arguing he’s politically constrained and likely to align policy with the administration’s goals.

"Buy Compute, Sell Bitcoin" — Why Corporations Chose AI Over BTC

Investors are favoring AI compute over Bitcoin because compute is monetizable and generates vastly higher revenue growth, so corporate capex flows into AI instead of BTC.

SpaceX Passed Microsoft And Amazon — Only 4.2% Of Shares Can Trade

SpaceX’s tiny tradable float (~4.2%) is driving extreme price action, with S&P inclusion and limited supply creating outsized short‑term valuation moves.

Everyone Who Bought SpaceX At IPO Is Up 50% In A Week

Early SpaceX IPO buyers have seen huge gains in days; most sellers are recent retail entrants while the majority of pre‑IPO holders remain locked up.

Elon Needs A Mars Colony And $7.5 Trillion Valuation To Unlock His Shares

Much of Musk’s compensation is contingent on extraordinary operational milestones — including a $7.5 trillion valuation, a million‑person Mars colony, and massive space data centers — so his shares are effectively inaccessible.

Coinbase Drops A Nuke: Pre-IPO Perps, 20x Leverage, AI-Powered RIA

Coinbase is launching US pre‑IPO perpetuals (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic), up to 20x leverage, tokenized one‑to‑one stocks, and an SEC‑registered AI RIA, intensifying US on‑ramp competition.

"Kalshi Has $2M Open Interest — Hyperliquid Does $9 Billion"

Speakers contrast tiny U.S. BTC perp open interest (~$2M) with multi‑billion offshore flows on venues like Hyperliquid, showing where crypto liquidity has actually migrated.

Elon Musk Is Probably 20 Years Away From Accessing His Own Wealth

The panel emphasizes that much of Musk’s reported net worth is unvested and tied to long‑dated milestones, meaning he likely won’t access that wealth for decades.

Milkroad Analyst Bought Western Union For The Stablecoin Play

A Milk Road analyst bought Western Union on the thesis that stablecoins could free roughly $4–5 billion in working capital, improving returns and strategic flexibility.

STRC At $91 — "I Don't See Why It Wouldn't Go Back To Par"

Despite STRC trading around the low $90s, hosts expect it to return to par given Michael Saylor’s capital position, convertible note dynamics, and built‑in upside features.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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