PodcastBenjamin CowenBen

NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026

Panelists emphasize macro headwinds for risk assets: materially higher long-term yields (30‑year ~5%+, 10‑year ~4.5%), rising energy and inflation that remove priced-in rate cuts, and the lagging nature of official recession calls. Markets today are far quieter than 2022—Bitcoin sits near ~$73k with only short-term weakness and remains above 200/250‑day moving averages—while many crypto equities have collapsed and crypto is treated as a disposable liquidity source. They caution about the opportunity cost of sitting out Bitcoin, flag competition for capital from mega private-market stories and AI IPOs (and possible index-driven rebalances), and recommend simple midterm rules like buying late in the midterm year, expecting Bitcoin to underperform then bottom early.

Crypto MarketsEconomic GrowthInterest RatesInflationMarket LiquidityInvestment Strategy

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Key Takeaways

Materially higher long-term government bond yields — the 30‑year around/above 5% and the 10‑year around 4.5% — combined with markets removing priced‑in rate cuts (and even pricing hikes) create a monetary headwind for crypto, which panelists say is especially sensitive to easing expectations.

Crypto's vulnerability is amplified because many publicly traded crypto-related companies have collapsed (some down ~99%) and the asset class is viewed as 'disposable' — likely to be among the first assets sold for liquidity in a severe recession — even as Bitcoin currently sits above 200/250‑day moving averages.

The market is much quieter than 2022's dramatic collapses, and Bitcoin's recent short pullback from about $73k (≈−3%/24h, ≈−5%/week) while remaining above longer-term moving averages suggests sideways, multi‑month rangebound action that fits the panelists' midterm-seasonality thesis: slide into June, modest July/August rally, and a potential final low in Q4.

ECONOMY

Long-term Yields — Speakers note materially higher long-term government bond yields: the 30‑year around/above 5% and the 10‑year around 4.5%. They argue those yields offer attractive nominal returns for many investors and are historically a headwind for risk assets.

“The what is it? The 30 year 30-year yield is now above 5%. the 10-year yields around four and a half percent.”—

Monetary Sensitivity — Panelists say crypto is especially sensitive to expectations for monetary easing. Rising energy prices and inflation have removed priced-in rate cuts and markets are even pricing in hikes, which acts as a headwind for crypto prices.

“I think the argument is that like crypto is more dependent on looser monetary policy than the stock market is…”—

MARKETS

Quieter than 2022 — Hosts contrast 2022's dramatic collapses (Celsius, Voyager, FTX, Luna) with the current environment, describing today as largely sideways and lacking the same event-driven "fireworks."

“I remember back in 2022, even though it was awful, we had a collapse of Celsius, Voyager, FTX, we had Luna collapse, we had everybody going to jail, at least…”—

Pullback Above MAs — Speakers note Bitcoin was trading near ~$73k with short-term weakness—down ~3% in 24 hours and ~5% over the week—but remains above longer-term moving averages (200/250‑day). That implies the pullback sits inside a larger multi-month range rather than signaling a fresh long-term downtrend.

“As we take a look at the market, we can see that right now that Bitcoin is below 75 now at 73,423…”—

Equity Collapse — Panelists report many publicly traded crypto-related companies have lost the vast majority of their value, with some down ~99%. Firms that pivoted away from pure crypto exposure are performing materially better.

“There are a lot of companies going under. And there's a lot of companies that are I mean in the crypto space there's definitely some companies that are hurting there…”—

FORECASTS

Midterm Seasonality — Speakers outline a midterm-year pattern: markets typically slide into June, rally modestly in July/August, and then make a final low in the fourth quarter. That implies continued sideways-to-down action through much of the year absent a late-cycle blowoff top.

“You usually what happens in midterm years is we kind of go down into June and then we kind of bounce some in the summer…”—

Midterm Rule — One panelist's practical rule: buy near the end of the midterm year and sell at the end of the post-halving year. That effectively means largely ignoring Bitcoin during the first half of the midterm cycle and looking for entries in July–September while accepting a possible final drop.

“Basically, the only indicator that anyone really ever needed was just buy at the end of the midterm year and sell at the end of the post having year.”—

Market Quietude Analysis

Hosts open by noting the market feels unusually boring versus 2022, with Bitcoin moving sideways near ~$73k despite occasional short dips.

Crypto As Infrastructure

Panel argues crypto is maturing into back‑end infrastructure, losing the 2021 frontier excitement and now facing ethical/regulatory debates.

Comparing Cycles

Discussion on how current midterm‑year dynamics mirror past cycles, with fewer blowoff tops and localized pain among crypto equities.

Midterm Timing Rule

Ben recommends a simple rule: ignore crypto the first half of midterm years and start buying into summer lows (July–September).

Competing Bull Markets

Speakers note capital competition from AI, space IPOs, energy, and other markets — stressing opportunity cost of holding idle cash in crypto's weak phase.

Bonds And Yields

Panel highlights materially higher long‑term yields (30‑yr ~5%+, 10‑yr ~4.5%) and notes bonds and yields now present attractive alternatives to risk assets.

IPO Shock Risks

Q&A covers potential market disruption from mega IPOs like SpaceX/OpenAI, including index rebalances that could extract liquidity from other assets.

SpaceX Market Impact

Speakers debate SpaceX's revenue timeline and likely short‑term liquidity drawdown, while remaining cautiously bullish over the long term.

Recession And Crypto

They argue Bitcoin tends to price things early and would likely bottom before an official recession, while crypto is seen as a disposable liquidity source in downturns.

Closing Takeaways

Hosts wrap up emphasizing macro headwinds, quiet markets, and simple midterm rules: buy late in the midterm year and expect early bottoms for Bitcoin.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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