VideoBenjamin CowenBenjamin Cowen

Labor Market Holds Steady

Labor markets remain resilient—unemployment at 4.3% and payrolls up just over 100k—though seasonal increases in initial claims could raise unemployment later this summer. The presenter anticipates a second, meaningful market correction in late Q3–Q4 that would likely drag Bitcoin lower, while energy stocks (notably XLE) could outperform in a late-cycle rotation. Recession-risk metrics stay muted (dashboard below ~0.16), but interest-rate–based indicators and the S&P/M2 peak (~29.40 in mid‑September) point to valuation pressures worth monitoring.

Labor MarketMarket VolatilityMarket ValuationsInterest RatesTrading StrategiesCrypto Markets

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Key Takeaways

The labor market remains resilient—unemployment steady at 4.3% with payrolls up just over 100k and low openings/quits/layoffs—but the presenter cautions that interest-rate–based components of the otherwise-low recession-risk dashboard (the metric has not exceeded ~0.16 since 2020) are forward‑looking and warrant vigilance.

The presenter expects a second window of market weakness in late Q3 into Q4 (following an earlier ~10% pullback), a view reinforced by the S&P/M2 ratio peaking the week of Sept 17 at about 29.40, which he points to as a valuation limit that marked this year's high.

Bitcoin is likely to underperform and fall alongside equities during that secondary weakness—Bitcoin has already lagged equities year‑to‑date, remains far from its all‑time highs, and is expected to make a lower low in a correlated sell‑off.

EQUITY-CRYPTO

Late-Year Pullback — The presenter expects a second window of market weakness in late Q3 into Q4—consistent with midyear patterns—after an earlier anticipated ~10% pullback. He views this as a meaningful correction that would likely push Bitcoin lower as well.

“And with the stock market, a while back, we said we would likely have a 10% drop…”—

LABOR-MARKET

Labor Resilience — Unemployment held at 4.3% while nonfarm payrolls rose just over 100k; hires edged up and openings/quits/layoffs remain low, signaling current labor-market resilience. However, initial claims typically rise into summer and could lift the unemployment rate later in the season.

“employment level total non-farm increased by a little over 100,000 so it is still going up.”—

MARKET-OUTLOOK

Bitcoin Downside — Bitcoin has lagged equities and remains far below its highs; a later-year equity correction is expected to produce a correlated sell-off and a lower low for Bitcoin.

“If Bitcoin Bitcoin's doing well, but so what, right? Like it's it's still underperforming a lot of other markets this year…”—

XLE Bounce — Energy historically outperforms late in cycles, and the presenter expects sector ETFs like XLE to rebound in the coming months if the market continues to make new highs.

“A lot of times energy does very well at the end of cycles and if the stock market's still putting in new all-time highs, then energy probably will as well.”—

RECESSION-RISK

S&P/M2 Peak — The S&P divided by M2 peaked the week of Sept. 17 at about 29.40, marking the year's high and signaling valuation pressures that may have helped define the market top.

“You can see it was the week of September 17th. The S&P hit a high of 29.40 and that ended up marking the high for the year…”—

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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