Josh Rings the Bell, Fifteen Year Changes, Bank Earnings, Internals Are Fine

The speaker says U.S. millionaire households rose from 10 million in 2011 to 23.6 million, with an estimated 85% of that growth attributable to the stock market; stock ownership also recovered from 52% in 2013–2016 to a local high of 62% in 2024–2025. Yet the speakers say the top 1% own half of all stocks while the bottom 50% own just 1%, and argue broader participation in market gains could help address economic and class divisions.

Over roughly 15 years, stock-market capitalization climbed from $11.9 trillion to $75 trillion while the economy grew from $15 trillion to $32 trillion; ETF assets rose from $954 billion to $16.3 trillion, and total U.S. retirement assets increased from $18 trillion to $51 trillion. The speakers also cite $5 trillion in JPMorgan wealth assets—with one speaker cautioning that the figure may refer to asset-management rather than client assets—and say its ETF business has become major since launching around 2017 or 2018.

Market strength is unusually concentrated: Goldman Sachs’ measure puts breadth at its weakest since the dot-com bubble, while the top five stocks, valued at $25 trillion, are worth as much as stocks 67 through 500. That divergence is visible beneath the S&P 500’s new high, with 146 technology stocks down 30% and 48 down 50% from their 52-week highs, and DRAM in a 30% drawdown.

Denise Chisholm argues that if the market withstands narrowing participation without a recession, historical data suggests larger gains may follow; separately, a speaker says average stocks could catch up if yields stabilize and earnings revisions hold, because their derating has run ahead of earnings deterioration. Those views come against a backdrop of weak breadth, which the speakers say has historically coincided with a correction of at least 5% roughly 97% of the time.