PodcastCommodity CultureRick Van Nieuwenhuyse

GOLD Miners PRINTING Record Cash But They're DOWN? 'MAJOR Buying Opportunity'

China's record silver imports and export limits are tightening global silver supply and risk creating separate China vs. rest‑of‑world pricing, a development seen as structurally bullish. In precious metals markets, speakers frame the ~20–25% gold pullback as a healthy correction driven by rising real yields, with central banks—rather than retail—providing the price floor while ETFs have outperformed miners. Company‑specific discussion emphasized conservative guidance, substantial cash, restartable ounces and an aggressive ~60,000m drilling program that should deliver continuous catalysts, alongside a valuation gap that management believes could re‑rate materially as liquidity and execution improve; production and project timelines target mid‑tier scale by 2029–2030.

Precious MetalsGoldSilverSupply ChainsMonetary PolicyCommodities

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Key Takeaways

China's record March silver imports and recent export restrictions are tightening global silver supply and could create a China‑specific price premium, which amplifies the strategic value of the company's plan to scale to roughly 5 million oz/year of silver by ~2029–2030.

Gold's recent ~20–25% pullback is viewed as a healthy correction driven mainly by rising real yields, with central‑bank flows acting as the primary price floor; meanwhile metal ETFs have outperformed but mining equities lag because generalist/retail capital remains concentrated in tech/AI, delaying the sector's expected late‑cycle re‑rating.

Management uses conservative $3,700/oz modeling, yet shows that a $1,000/oz higher realized gold price would add roughly $45m of free cash flow, and with production ramping from ~45k oz this year to ~75–80k oz next year (with sub‑$500/oz guidance), the company stands to capture meaningful operating leverage.

GEO-POLITICS

Silver Squeeze — China imported a record amount of silver in March and imposed export restrictions earlier this year; as the largest industrial consumer and a key refiner/trader, those moves tighten global supply. This raises the risk of China‑specific pricing versus a rest‑of‑world price and is viewed as structurally bullish for silver over the long term.

“I want to move on to silver…”—

MARKETS

Gold Correction — The ~20–25% retracement from gold's peak (~5,500) is characterized as a healthy correction rather than a structural breakdown; rising real (inflation‑adjusted) yields are the main inverse driver. Speakers emphasize central bank buying/selling—not retail flows—as the primary mechanism supporting the price floor.

“I mean, you know, look, we've gone up to 5,500 and we've come off, you know, sort of a healthy 20 25% correction…”—

ETF Outperformance — Metal ETFs have outperformed underlying metals while mining equities lagged—GDX was essentially flat versus gold YTD and SIL outperformed silver. Guests say the equities shortfall reflects absent generalist/retail flows, creating a 'show‑me' setup should capital rotate back into miners.

“In fact, as the as the time of this recording, the GDX ETF is currently dead even with gold year over year to date, which is absolutely incredible.”—

Model Upside — Management treats Kinross's $3,700/oz guidance as conservative and notes that a $1,000/oz higher realized gold price would meaningfully expand free cash flow (~$45m illustrated). They point to peers with AISC around $3,000/oz to underscore how the company's lower cost profile boosts resilience and upside.

“We're using $3,700 an ounce to for our guidance. and that comes from Kin Ross. It's not a number we made up…”—

FORECASTS

Generalist Focus — Speakers argue generalist investors remain concentrated in tech/AI and large caps, delaying rotation into mining equities; they see a miner re‑rating as a late‑cycle event that could occur when generalist and retail flows return.

“I like Rick's point about the generalist…”—

Near‑Term Ramp — Management forecasts roughly 45,000 oz this year ramping to ~75–80,000 oz next year (Mono/Muncho), with operating costs expected to decline (guidance cited sub‑$500/oz) and materially higher cash generation as production increases.

“Mono is producing, we're going to produce 45,000 ounces of gold this year. We're going to produce about 75 to 80,000 next year.”—

Mid‑Tier Target — The multi‑asset growth plan targets about 200,000 oz/year of gold and 5 million oz/year of silver by around 2029–2030 as the company moves to mid‑tier scale.

“again, they're silverri, so they again, they're synergistic with our gold rich, Johnson track project. And when you add those up, you get Lucky Shot on in production…”—

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Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

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