Elon Musk Spent $366M On The Midterms — Will It Work?

Bradley Tusk argues that political spending can help but does not determine outcomes: Mandami beat Andrew Cuomo despite spending $17 million to Cuomo’s $70 million, while a $6 million targeted social-media effort helped defeat Chip Roy by 11 points. He says expensive broadcast ads have weaker reach as fewer people watch broadcast TV, and predicts spending may keep rising even as its effectiveness declines.

Tusk says Musk spent roughly $366 million in the 2025–2026 election cycle, more than the $290 million he spent in 2024, but expects that spending will not prevent the House from flipping; he also says the perception of Musk as a major spender may deter politicians. The AI and Crypto Group, meanwhile, spent $127 million across 100 primaries and won roughly 90% of them.

Tusk says Democrats could win roughly 52 Senate seats but would still lack the 60 votes needed for cloture, while a Trump veto could further block legislation; he expects bipartisan state-level AI and data-center legislation to advance and says midterm results will make little difference to tech policy overall. He also warns that tech companies’ political interventions can create voter backlash, citing OpenAI’s opposition to Alex Boris, which he says appeared to help Boris before Boris ultimately lost.

The host alleges several potential conflicts involving public office and private financial interests: Tom Homan allegedly accepted $50,000 for a promise to help secure government contracts, Howard Lutnick allegedly negotiated $1.6 billion in federal financing for a Kazakhstani mining project while his sons collected fees through his firm, and Jared Kushner allegedly solicited Middle Eastern fund money while steering foreign policy. The host also alleges that Trump traded $220 million in stocks during the year’s first three months and sold early access to his social-media posts.