PodcastMaggie LakeMish Schneider

Does Tech Have More Room to Run? With Mish Schneider

Schneider argues that interest rates around 5% have not halted AI adoption, while pointing to infrastructure and energy demand as areas to assess. She sees the Nasdaq’s record high against a backdrop of tech inflows and strong earnings, but notes weak market breadth and sharp differences across sectors. Her market ideas include conditional setups in SMR, TLT, and Bitcoin, alongside potential opportunities in pipelines, robotics, and related minerals.

Technology StocksArtificial IntelligenceInterest RatesMarket BreadthCorporate EarningsInvestment Strategy

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Key Takeaways

Schneider says interest rates around 5% have not stopped AI activity from expanding into everyday use, and argues that if AI is here to stay, its supporting infrastructure and energy needs warrant attention. She also says water produced by natural-gas fracking could be relevant to AI data centers, though it is not drinkable and technology is being developed to clean it.

Schneider sees a disconnect between market-driven prosperity and the real economy: the Nasdaq reached a record high amid money flowing into tech and strong earnings, yet many stocks remained below their 50-day moving average, retail was weak, and consumer confidence was low. She argues that market participants’ sense of prosperity is not necessarily reflected in consumer sentiment readings.

Schneider says momentum has dominated trading, making attempts to buy near lows less effective even for assets with sound fundamental stories; she advises staying open to a possible broadening that could create opportunities in lagging assets. That view sits alongside her observations that semiconductors and biotech had been strong, while transportation and regional banks moved back above their 50-week moving averages after breaking below them.

TECHNOLOGY

AI Adoption — Schneider argues that interest rates around 5% have not stopped AI-related activity, which continues to expand into everyday use.

“People have been saying these high rates are going to kill it and it hasn't yet. No, that's what I'm saying…”—

ECONOMY

Yield Context — Schneider says bond yields of 5% to 5.5% are historically normal and may be healthier for the market, rather than inherently alarming.

“And these bond yields at five to 5 and a half% those of us who are old enough remember to remember is actually pretty normal and maybe even healthier for…”—

MARKETS

Nasdaq And AI — Schneider says substantial money is flowing into tech and points to strong recent earnings as part of the backdrop for the Nasdaq’s record high. She considers the debate over whether AI is a bubble misplaced, while acknowledging that valuations adjust through cycles.

“Well, obviously there's so much money going into tech and the whole debate about whether or not AI is a big bubble looks kind of silly at this point…”—

Weak Breadth — Schneider says that despite strength in some stocks, many remained below their 50-day moving average, indicating weak market breadth.

“We got things doing really really well, but then we also had a pretty frightening statistic where a most of the stocks are still trading below their 50-day moving average…”—

Sector Divergence — Schneider says retail was notably weak amid low consumer confidence and declines in Nike and Lululemon, while semiconductors and biotech had been strong. Transportation and regional banks had fallen below their 50-week moving averages but moved back above them on the day she was discussing.

“If you step back and look at those weekly charts, the only, well, I shouldn't say the only up until last week, the only sector that was below a 50…”—

FORECASTS

Bond Bottom Setup — Schneider says a potential long-bond bottom is unconfirmed. She would consider a position only if the current low holds and a subsequent close exceeds that day’s high, particularly above roughly 7,750 and Friday’s close. Three consecutive doji candles could indicate a direction change, she says, but not with certainty. For TLT, she would consider a position above 95, a recent high and pivotal area, while keeping risk tight; she cautions that trying to pick a bottom means trading against a major bear market.

“If today's low holds up and tomorrow we can close above today's high and particularly over Friday's close and that those numbers are around 7750 then I might say let's…”—

– Cold Open: "Does Tech Have More Room to Run?"

Mish joins Maggie for a live conversation, and Maggie welcomes viewers to submit questions for this discussion and future episodes.

– The Nasdaq's Record High — What's Driving It

Mish attributes the Nasdaq's record to money flowing into tech, strong recent earnings, and expectations for another solid quarter.

– Why the "AI Bubble" Debate "Looks Kind of Silly" to Her

Mish says the AI-bubble argument looks increasingly weak as adoption expands, though valuations can still adjust and inflation remains uneven.

– The Bifurcated Market: Strength on Top, Weakness Underneath

Mish describes a bifurcated market: tech and biotech are strong, but many stocks remain below their 50-day averages and breadth is weak.

– Is This a "Rolling Recession," or Is the Market About to Roll Over?

They consider whether market weakness reflects a rolling recession or an impending broad decline; Mish sees corrections in some areas alongside resilience elsewhere.

– Inside the "Economic Modern Family": Which Sectors Are Actually Weak

Mish says retail is the weakest part of her Economic Modern Family, while semiconductors and biotech have helped support the market.

– A "Financialized Economy": Why Prosperity Doesn't Feel Real for Everyone

Mish argues that market participation and gains in popular stocks can make prosperity feel widespread even while many households struggle in the real economy.

– Is This the Bottom for Long Bonds?

Mish does not yet see a confirmed bottom in long bonds, but would consider a small, nimble position if specific reversal signals appear.

– A Global Bond Selloff — and a "Failed" Treasury Auction

They note that the bond selloff is global and that weak Treasury auction demand adds uncertainty to an already difficult market.

– Could Rising Rates Finally Break the AI Trade?

Mish says yields near 5% have not stopped AI adoption; she points to everyday use and AI-assisted medical research as evidence of its reach.

– Moderna, the "Fourth Industrial Revolution," and a Big Year for Her Quant Models

Mish says AI represents a real industrial shift, while acknowledging possible corrections and competition; she adds that momentum has favored her quant models.

– Bitcoin's Halving Cycle, and a Low-Risk Way to Play $100K

Mish says Bitcoin's post-halving timing and price consolidation offer a potential trade through IBIT, with a defined exit and limited downside if her setup fails.

– Stablecoins, Circle, and Why Older Investors Still Distrust Bitcoin

Mish discusses stablecoins and Circle, and says older investors' skepticism toward Bitcoin contrasts with younger generations' distrust of government-backed money.

– A REIT and Bond Setup: Watching for "Doji" Reversal Signals

Mish explains that repeated doji candles can signal a pause or reversal, and identifies a key level for a possible bond-sensitive REIT trade.

– "Axles and Chassis": What's Really Holding Up the AI Trade

Mish is looking beyond headline AI stocks to the energy and infrastructure needed to support data centers, including potential nuclear-related opportunities.

– The Natural Gas Bottleneck: Pipelines, Fracking Water, and Fuel Cells

Mish describes natural gas constraints and possible opportunities in pipelines, water treatment, and fuel cells, while noting that low prices can curb production.

– Picks: Amazon, Alibaba, and Why She "Never Discounts China"

Mish sees a conditional Amazon setup tied to consumer-sector strength and considers Alibaba and FXI potential recovery trades, while remaining open to China.

– Final Pick: Robotics, Actuators, and the Rare-Earths Trade

Mish highlights robotics components such as actuators, naming Timken and Moog, and points to rare-earth minerals as essential inputs.

– Closing Thoughts and Disclaimer

Maggie and Mish close by emphasizing the many market opportunities, then exchange thanks and remind viewers that the discussion is not financial advice.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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