David Miliband: ‘Peacemaking has gone into retreat’

PodcastThe Rachman ReviewDavid MilibandSep 17

David Miliband describes a more chaotic international order, with record conflict levels, mass displacement, and retreating diplomacy. He argues that aid cuts can deepen instability, while concrete delivery results can make the case for assistance. He also calls for broader multilateral cooperation on security and AI, and says closer UK–EU ties could help rebuild trust.

Geopolitical Risk National Security Artificial Intelligence

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Key Takeaways

David Miliband says 65 conflicts—the highest number since World War II—coincide with 120 million people displaced by conflict and 60% of the world’s extreme poor living in conflict-affected states. He links this crisis to reduced societal capacity to absorb shocks and warns that untreated humanitarian need can incubate political instability.

Miliband says the IRC expects effectively no U.S. government funding for its international aid work in the fiscal year beginning October 1, after aid cuts he associates with an estimated 700,000 deaths and lost services for about 8 million IRC clients. He argues that concrete results can make a stronger case for aid, citing 36 million vaccine doses delivered to about 2.5 million previously unvaccinated children as the cost per shot fell from $3 to $1.

Miliband describes the global order as more transactional and chaotic, with the U.S. no longer underwriting the system in the same way, while weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea can use global interdependence as leverage. He argues that military force has limits—the Saudi and Emirati bombing campaign could not force the Houthis into submission—and that stabilizing the system will require multiple forms of multilateral cooperation.

GEO-POLITICS

Displacement Crises — The UN says 86,000 people have fled Yemen in recent weeks, while the war in Sudan has displaced about 14 million. Increased Russian bombardment of Ukraine has also raised fears of a new refugee wave into Europe.

“The UN says 86,000 people have fled Yemen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, across the Red Sea, the long war in Sudan has led to some 14,000,000 people fleeing their homes…”—

Strategic Waterways — David Miliband argues that weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea threatens America’s ability to underpin order in the region. Global interdependence, he says, can be used as leverage.

“But the weaponization of global interdependence, the weaponization of the Straits Of Hormuz, the weaponization of the Red Sea poses a very serious threat to America's ability to underpin the…”—

Limits Of Force — David Miliband says the Yemen war showed that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could not bomb the Houthis into submission. He sees this as evidence of military power’s limits as diplomacy retreats.

“I mean, that war showed you cannot bomb your way to submission of the Houthis…”—

TECHNOLOGY

AI Existential Risk — David Miliband says Geoffrey Hinton’s estimate of a 10% chance that AI could wipe out humanity should be taken seriously because Hinton knows much more about AI than he does. Miliband says even a 1% chance would warrant a precautionary approach.

“When Jeffrey Hinton, in a way, the godfather of AI, when when he says, yeah, I reckon that's about right, 10% chance, You've got to take that seriously because he…”—

AI Misuse — Miliband cites Anthropic’s monthly threat report as evidence that AI capabilities are already being misused. Examples include attempts to use Claude Code for surveillance and precision-missile weapons purposes in Yemen, Sudan, Mali, and Ukraine. He argues that global cooperation must include fragile states, not just the United States, Russia, and China.

“I was very struck. Anthropic published this monthly report of threats, what they're seeing about people trying to misuse their capacity…”—

MARKETS

UK Economic Strains — David Miliband says U.S. bond yields are driving up UK bond yields, contributing to a challenging economic environment. He also argues that Brexit contributed to UK political instability, economic underperformance, and social division.

“I would argue very strongly, as a consequence of Brexit, our politics has been unstable. Our economy has been underperforming. Our society has been divided. And that's…”—

Middle East Conflict Escalation

Miliband warns that fighting risks a wider, prolonged Gulf conflict as regional order weakens, military power reaches its limits, and diplomacy retreats.

Record Humanitarian Need

Miliband cites record conflict, displacement, and humanitarian need, with poverty increasingly concentrated in conflict-affected states and fewer resources to absorb shocks.

Aid Cuts And Outcomes

He argues aid can prevent instability, but sharp funding cuts are reducing services; aid organizations must demonstrate concrete results to rebuild public support.

Peacemaking In Retreat

Miliband says diplomacy and leverage over conflict sponsors have weakened as power diffuses globally and autocratic rule expands, leaving wars easier to start than end.

America And Global Disorder

He describes a more transactional, chaotic international order as US confidence in multilateral leadership and long-term alliances declines, with little prospect of restoring the postwar arrangement.

AI Safety And Cooperation

Miliband urges precautionary safeguards and international cooperation on AI risks, warning that governments should act before a catastrophic incident forces them to respond.