Bitcoin: The Window of Weakness
The video argues that Bitcoin is in a predictable "window of weakness" tied to midterm-year seasonality, with the weakness likely continuing into mid-to-late June. The speaker concludes that a June low is a plausible scenario (followed by a possible counter-trend rally in July) and recommends ignoring or fading Bitcoin during the first half of the midterm year while watching macro events like a potential Bank of Japan rate move.
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Read the Full SummaryKey Points
The current Bitcoin selloff has taken the price from about $83,000 to roughly $73,000 over the last few weeks.
Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day moving average, the same level that produced resistance in 2022 and 2018.
The speaker identifies the entire midterm year as Bitcoin's primary window of weakness within the four-year cycle.
If prior cycles repeat, June is a candidate month for the next significant low, as seen in 2018 and 2022.
The Bank of Japan's likely rate move in mid-June is the main macro event to watch and could be linked to Bitcoin finding a low.
Historically, Bitcoin often finds a low in February and then another (sometimes higher) low around April.
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Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
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