Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin may have already formed a low despite incomplete on-chain resets, because the 2019 and 2025 tops were characterized by apathy rather than euphoria, with no rotation into higher-risk assets or unusually high MVRV-Z readings. He also points to similar macro conditions, including quantitative tightening ending roughly two months after the tops and three Federal Reserve rate cuts in each period.

Cowen sees the current Bitcoin structure as a larger version of 2018, with repeated lower-high rallies around the upper $90,000s, lower-to-mid $80,000s, and mid-$70,000s compared with the upper $9,000s, mid-$8,000s, and mid-$7,000s in 2018. He presents this pattern, along with repeated support near roughly $60,000 today versus $6,000 in 2018, as evidence that the cycle low may not yet be confirmed.

Cowen cautions that Bitcoin’s current 20% four-day rally does not establish that the low is in, citing sharp rallies in 2019 and 2022 that preceded further declines. The October 2019 move included a 40% two-day rally and an approximately 18% move above the 200-day moving average, yet Bitcoin reached a new low 31 days later and established a floor 54 days later.

Cowen expects Bitcoin could experience another Q4 decline, consistent with a pattern he says has occurred in every midterm year, potentially resembling the November–December 2019 sell-off. He views that possible final decline as a potential accumulation opportunity and says he would likely buy more Bitcoin whether or not the forecast occurs.