PodcastThe Wolf Of All StreetsScott Melker

Bitcoin TANKS To $64K After Warsh Goes Full Hawk

Speakers judged a comprehensive Iran deal within 60 days unrealistic and see meaningful U.S. regulatory change as unlikely until a 2028–29 administration. They flagged a non‑custodial Bitcoin‑staking white paper (requires ~5% STX, targets ~3% yield, shipping by September) and discussed a budget that levies 0.2% on hosted crypto transfers plus a 10% tax on programmatic local ads. Markets face rising concentration risk and whale re‑accumulation, a migration of volatile trading to Hyperliquid (≈$9bn open interest), and isolated stress such as STRC preferred trading near $89. The guest takes a guarded view that a bottom could form by end‑Q3, while acknowledging further downside remains possible.

BitcoinCrypto MarketsMonetary PolicyCrypto RegulationMarket StructureTax Planning

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Key Takeaways

A comprehensive Iran deal within 60 days is judged effectively impossible; negotiated terms discussed would restore roughly $300 billion to Iran, and Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz gives it durable leverage over oil chokepoints—a dynamic made more consequential because recent large oil moves and lagged pass-through to input costs complicate U.S. inflation and Fed easing paths.

The guest argues short-term regulatory 'clarity' under the current U.S. administration won't materially change builder sentiment today and that the meaningful policy inflection is likelier around 2028–2029, a view amplified by the Fed's decision to stop routine forward guidance and accept more ad hoc communications, increasing near-term policy uncertainty.

In response to custody/transfer risk and a new law that levies 0.2% on crypto transfers executed via hosted wallets (potentially catching Venmo-like hosted money), the guest's team is launching a non-custodial Bitcoin-staking product that requires roughly 5% STX, targets a steady ~3% yield, keeps assets on L1 in users' wallets, and aims for a bond-like September rollout.

Trading migration away from volatile narrative activity on U.S. exchanges to venues like Hyperliquid—now showing roughly $9 billion of open interest and pricing names such as SpaceX—has drawn prop shops and hedge funds, merging TradFi liquidity into crypto and broadening price-discovery and contagion surfaces just as the market lacks the clear, isolatable catalysts that marked prior crashes.

GEO-POLITICS

Iran Deal — A comprehensive Iran deal within 60 days is effectively impossible, the speaker says. Negotiated terms would restore roughly $300 billion to Iran versus earlier concerns about small cash transfers, and Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz gives it durable leverage over energy chokepoints.

“I mean I think the odds of us having an actual full deal with Iran in 60 days is zero.”—

TECHNOLOGY

Staking Paper — Their team published a white paper for a Bitcoin-staking product that requires holding roughly 5% STX against the Bitcoin and targets a steady ~3% yield. The design keeps assets on L1 in the user's own wallet to avoid custody, smart-contract, and transfer risk, and is planned to ship toward the end of the summer as a bond-like offering in September.

“we actually just put out the white paper for our new at stacks for our new Bitcoin staking product where basically you hold like you bring in Bitcoin, you hold…”—

Wimbledon Build — The guest doesn't build in Minecraft; their child recreated Wimbledon as a large in-game stadium. They restrict play to creative mode (no survival) to keep the focus on construction.

“What I want to know what you've been building in Minecraft. I don't build in Minecraft…”—

ECONOMY

Transfer Levy — The hosts discuss a recently signed law that levies 0.2% on crypto transfers executed via hosted wallets, including self-transfers through hosted services. The bill is broadly written so it could capture Venmo-like hosted money representations, and the same budget adds a 10% tax on programmatic digital advertising for local businesses.

“So the proposal here basically are actually it's a law. He signed it. So 0.2% even if you send yourself some crypto from your own wallet to your own wallet.”—

MARKETS

STRC Preferred — Strategies' STRC preferred stock hit a record low below par and is trading around $89.

“Strategies STRC preferred stock hits a record low below par. So, it's trading at 89 bucks.”—

Concentration Risk — Speakers warn of concentration risk—one holder owns roughly 5% of Bitcoin. They note whales are re-accumulating after selling into the downturn, and an address-size cohort holding 1,000 BTC now controls a historically large share: 7.17 million BTC, the highest since March.

“I don't like someone holding 5% of Bitcoin and I think that is a bad thing to have like that much concentrated in it.”—

No Clear Catalysts — Earlier crashes had identifiable structural triggers (Terra/Luna, FTX) that could be isolated. The current market lacks a clear catalyst map, which makes recovery paths harder to foresee despite favorable politics and institutional inflows.

“We got an administration that's obviously very favorable to crypto…”—

FORECASTS

Q3 Bottom — The guest expects the market will likely hit a bottom and begin to turn by the end of Q3. They argue claims that the Bitcoin four‑year cycle is dead are overstated, but acknowledge the bottom isn't guaranteed and further downside would not be surprising.

“I think by the end of Q3, we've definitely hit the bottom, knock on wood, and are and are kind of turning back around.”—

Bitcoin Tanks After Warsh Goes Full Hawk — No Dot Plot, No Guidance

Host reacts to the market shock after Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish tone, noting no dot plot or forward guidance and markets repricing rate expectations.

Illinois Signs 0.2% Tax On Every Crypto Transaction — Even Wallet Transfers

Discussion of Illinois’ new 0.2% levy on hosted digital-asset transfers and broad drafting that could sweep in many digital payments and ad revenue.

"If Anyone Was Left In Chicago Doing Crypto, They're Probably Leaving"

Speakers argue the punitive law will drive crypto businesses out of Chicago and reflects cash-strapped states grabbing easy tax receipts.

Warsh's First FOMC: No Forward Guidance, No Dot Plot, "I'll Tell You Next Time"

Recap of Warsh’s first FOMC: unanimous hold, removal of dot plot and forward guidance, and his insistence on limited public forecasting to rebuild Fed credibility.

9 Out Of 18 Fed Members Think A Rate Hike Could Be Coming

Examination of the FOMC split where nine of 18 members signaled a possible future hike and markets reacted to mixed signals about policy tightening.

"The Iran Deal Terms Are Super Broad 'We'll Figure It Out Later' Statements"

Conversation about the Iran deal’s vague terms and why speakers view a comprehensive settlement within 60 days as unrealistic and geopolitically favorable to Iran.

STRC Hits Record Low At $89 — "There Was Never Actually A Moat"

Analysis of STRC preferred stock collapsing to about $89, with guests arguing the company lacked a durable moat beyond retail hype and yield financing pressures.

"I Have No Reason To Think This Is The Bottom"

Guest expresses skepticism that current price levels are the market bottom, citing macro risks and acknowledging a guarded view a bottom could form by end-Q3.

New Bitcoin Staking Product: 3% Yield With Zero Custody Risk

Announcement and overview of a new non‑custodial Bitcoin staking product on Stacks requiring ~5% STX and targeting a roughly 3% yield, shipping in September.

"The Degens That Were Trading Altcoins Now Trade SpaceX On Hyperliquid"

Discussion about trading migration: retail degens and prop shops moving volatile flows to Hyperliquid, which shows high open interest and real-time pricing signals.

"Clarity Does Very Little In The Short Term — It's About What Happens In 2029"

Point that regulatory clarity will mainly matter for the 2028–29 administration cycle and will likely do little to change short‑term builder or market behavior.

"How Do You Call It Hard Money If It Drops 50% In Six Months?"

Closing reflections on Bitcoin as 'hard money' being tough to pitch during large short-term drawdowns and light banter about Minecraft and show sign-off.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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