PodcastThe Wolf Of All StreetsAndy Constan

Bitcoin Holds $83K As Bessent's "House" Looks Ready To Fold | Andy Constan

The discussion links energy costs, interest rates, and fiscal deficits to economic and market risks, including the gradual pass-through of diesel prices and the potential consequences of a stock-market correction. Speakers also weigh bonds, commodities, and Bitcoin, with differing views on Bitcoin's relationship to gold, its potential monetary premium, and the volatility involved. Forecasts range from a possible bond-market bottoming phase to falling crop prices, while remaining conditional on how markets and geopolitical risks evolve.

BitcoinInterest RatesFiscal PolicyEnergy MarketsCommoditiesMarket Volatility

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Key Takeaways

Speakers link diesel’s gradual pass-through to consumer prices to its role in U.S. trucking: trucking companies are squeezed before raising rates, so an oil shock can work through the economy over time. One speaker argues that rate hikes do not lower diesel prices and could add mortgage and credit-card costs for consumers already facing higher energy-driven costs for necessities.

Andy Constan argues that the fiscal sustainability problem is the roughly $2 trillion gap between government spending and tax revenue—not the price of borrowing—and cites a deficit near 6% of GDP outside a recession. He also says Treasury’s $128 billion increase in buybacks, financed with T-bills and without changing coupon issuance, was intended to suppress long-term rates and run the economy hot; he supports canceling the 20-year Treasury if issuance shifts to 10- and 30-year maturities.

Andy Constan says AI capital spending and robust asset markets have supported above-trend growth and above-target inflation, while global long-term yields have caught up with the growth boom. He argues that current yields make bonds more useful in a slowdown and favors holding them alongside equities for diversification.

Andy Constan argues that dollar strength and high rates weigh on metals, cryptocurrencies, and other commodities; in his view, Fed easing could weaken the dollar, possibly after a stock-market decline. Separately, a speaker says a five-year yield above 5% at year-end—if it occurs—would be the highest since 1999 and a major headwind for non-income-producing assets, including metals and cryptocurrencies.

A speaker describes gold as trading around $4,200, within roughly $4,100–$4,300, while Mike cites gold’s reversal from a 25% year-to-date gain to a 4–5% decline and silver’s shift from a 60% gain to a 15% decline. Andy Constan attributes volatility during the precious-metals rally and reversal partly to leveraged speculative money flowing into gold and silver and then reversing.

GEO-POLITICS

Election Odds — A speaker cites prediction-market odds of a Democratic sweep at 61% and a Republican sweep at 11%, while cautioning that the odds can change. Another speaker expects Republicans to narrowly hold the Senate and Democrats to win the House, producing two years of gridlock.

“Congress balance of power right now, a Democrat sweep is 61% on prediction markets. Now, we know these can change dramatically, but a Republican sweep…”—

TECHNOLOGY

Bitcoin Adoption — A speaker says Bitcoin's correlation with adoption metrics, including hash rate, is one of the most interesting developments in its history. Those metrics, the speaker notes, have turned up significantly recently.

“So, what I what I was getting to is the most interesting thing in Bitcoin's history is its correlation to its adoption metrics…”—

ECONOMY

Diesel Pass-Through — A speaker argues that diesel costs can pass through the economy because diesel powers much of U.S. trucking, and consumer goods travel by truck. Trucking companies are squeezed before raising rates, so the oil shock can work through the economy gradually.

“Now, in Europe, it's not quite as dependent upon diesel, but the US is. Almost all trucking, almost everything goes by trucks. Railroads are nowhere near as important…”—

Rates And Energy — A speaker argues that raising rates will not lower diesel prices and could further burden consumers through mortgage and credit-card costs as energy makes necessities more expensive. Another speaker says G7 central banks are hiking in response to the energy crisis, while China faces major deflationary forces.

“Now, all of that said, raising rates does absolutely nothing to decrease the price of diesel. It literally zero…”—

Growth And Inflation — Andy Constan says AI capital spending and robust asset markets have supported above-trend growth and inflation above target.

“At the same time, the consumer has remained strong because asset markets have remained robust. And so that combination of things has created above trend growth impulse, inflation above target.”—

MARKETS

Copper Correlation — A speaker says the 50-week correlation between U.S. copper and the S&P 500 is 0.65, its highest since copper began trading in 1988. The speaker describes copper as exposed to stock-market moves.

“I point out the fact is copper's 50we correlation to the S&P 500s 65. That's the highest in its history ever since it started trading in 1988…”—

Dollar Pressure — Andy Constan argues that a strong dollar and high rates weigh on metals, cryptocurrencies, and other commodities. In his view, Fed easing could weaken the dollar, and a falling stock market could prompt easing.

“the strength in the dollar high rates lagging performance this is what's really bad for the whole metals and all cryptos in my space and I you know even all…”—

Gold's Range — A speaker describes gold as trading roughly between $4,100 and $4,300, around $4,200. The speaker says its stability reflects money creation.

“Well yeah so let's let Metals are fascinating because gold is still relatively fairly priced you know they've been it's been stubborn sitting around this 4200 level give or take…”—

FORECASTS

Crop Price Outlook — A speaker says corn and soybean prices appear to have peaked, though they remain above production costs, and hedge funds are still heavily long heading into harvest. The speaker expects prices eventually to fall sharply toward average production costs, though they could rise further first.

“Corn looks like it's peaked. Soybeans look like they have peaked. They're well above cost of production. The hedge funds are still way long for harvest.”—

Five-Year Yield — A speaker says that if the five-year yield ends the year above 5%, it would be the highest since 1999 and a major headwind for non-income-producing assets, including metals and cryptocurrencies.

“And that whole space cryptos and metals I put in the same bucket as they are completely subject to that fiveyear yield…”—

Oil Conflict Scenarios — A speaker says a hot war involving the Houthis and Saudi Arabia that disrupts the region's oil processing could pose a problem for oil prices. A more stable outcome could push prices the other way.

“But the but the Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia is a very big deal because that axis starting from Iran, that's where the real oil processing is…”—

Fed And Market Outlook

Mike reviews forecasts for inflation, rates, Treasury demand, equities, and commodities, warning that elevated yields could pressure non-income-producing assets.

Diesel Inflation Pass-Through

Dave argues that diesel costs gradually raise prices across transported goods, while higher interest rates cannot reduce energy costs and could further burden consumers.

Energy Prices And Midterms

Mike disputes Dave's comparison of European and U.S. diesel dependence and says energy prices, the war, and voter backlash could shape the midterms.

Election Risks And Dollar Strength

The speakers discuss possible congressional gridlock and how strong U.S. yields support the dollar, creating headwinds for commodities, metals, and crypto.

Gold, Bitcoin, And Monetary Premium

Dave separates Bitcoin from other crypto tokens, framing Bitcoin as a speculative option on capturing gold's monetary premium while acknowledging its liquidity sensitivity.

Bond Market Growth Repricing

Andy attributes higher long-term yields to years of strong growth, AI investment, and resilient consumers, and questions whether Treasury issuance changes amount to manipulation.

Deficits And Debt Sustainability

Andy says persistent annual deficit spending—not modest changes in interest rates—is the central fiscal problem, and the others see little political will to reduce it.

Bessent And Treasury Supply

Andy supports replacing 20-year issuance with other maturities but argues Treasury buybacks and financing choices are intended to suppress long-term yields and sustain growth.

Stock Market Correction Risk

Mike warns that expensive stocks underpin other asset markets and that political backlash or a correction could expose vulnerabilities, while the group debates downside risks.

Bonds Regain Portfolio Value

Andy says real yields make bonds attractive diversification again, sees a possible bottoming phase, and distinguishes his medium-term bond trade from his long-term portfolio allocation.

Bitcoin Adoption And Volatility

The guests debate whether Bitcoin's past gains reflect monetary debasement, political support, or adoption, and consider how a stock correction could affect risk assets.

Bitcoin As Digital Gold

Dave describes Bitcoin as an option on adoption and gold's monetary premium, while Andy says lasting digital-gold status requires lower volatility and stronger gold-like behavior.

Bitcoin Adoption Metrics

The speakers examine adoption measures and argue over whether Bitcoin must first behave like gold or whether greater adoption can gradually change its correlations and volatility.

Monetary Premium And Time

The group agrees that Bitcoin's monetary premium could change over decades, but Andy expects sideways trading and declining volatility may be needed for wider adoption.

Speculation And Crypto Risks

They discuss speculative money rotating between assets, compare Bitcoin volatility with gold and Treasury yields, share a cautionary altcoin anecdote, and close the episode.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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