PodcastReinvent MoneyBojan Pancevski

Who Blew Up Nord Stream? WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski on the $20 Billion Sabotage

Pancevski describes how a small team allegedly sabotaged Nord Stream and discusses competing questions about who approved the operation and who knew about it. He says German investigators found no evidence of U.S. involvement and ultimately excluded Russia, while the coming trial could strain Berlin-Kyiv relations and become a political tool for the AfD. The discussion also highlights Germany’s reliance on Russian gas and the role of sanctions in preventing pipeline repairs and renewed trade.

Natural GasEnergy SecurityGeopolitical Risk

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Key Takeaways

Pancevski says Nord Stream was a major energy-trading artery, especially for Germany and Western Europe, yet its length and the scale of surrounding infrastructure made it difficult to protect comprehensively. He says a small, skilled crew using a yacht could evade detection despite sensors, drones, and stepped-up patrols.

Pancevski describes a seven-person sabotage team—four civilian deep-sea divers and three soldiers—with the divers placing mines and the soldiers serving as skipper, explosives expert, and commander. He presents the operation as an example of how a small group could damage strategic infrastructure without a large-scale mission.

Pancevski cites a Dutch intelligence warning about a planned June 19, 2022, attack that was postponed until September 26, along with German investigators’ finding of no evidence of U.S. involvement, in arguing that the CIA or United States was not behind the sabotage. He says investigators also excluded Russia after examining indications of Russian vessels near the pipelines, while the question of whether Zelensky knew remains unresolved.

GEO-POLITICS

Nord Stream Vulnerability — Pancevski argues that a small group with the right skills could destroy strategic energy infrastructure without a James Bond-level operation. The pipeline’s length, civilian boat traffic in the Baltic, and use of a yacht made an attack difficult to detect and prevent despite drones, sensors, and stepped-up patrols.

“it was surprising for me to learn that infra infrastructure like that can be destroyed fairly easily if you find a small group of people who are willing to risk…”—

Sabotage Crew — Pancevski says the crew started with six members and grew to seven when another person joined three days before the operation ended. Four were civilian deep-sea divers and three were soldiers. The soldiers served as skipper, explosives expert, and commander; the civilians placed the mines on the pipeline.

“the crew that destroyed Nordstream consisted of initially of six people, then later on a seven person joined 3 days before the end of the operation…”—

Strategic Importance — Pancevski describes Nord Stream as one of Europe’s main energy-trading arteries, especially important to Western Europe and Germany.

“And obviously, the overall value of strategic mega infrastructure like that is kind of priceless…”—

ECONOMY

German Gas Generation — Pancevski says Germany shut down nuclear power generation and replaced the reactors’ baseline electricity output with gas, which he describes as somewhat cleaner than coal or oil. He says Nord Stream was an important source of natural gas for Germany.

“And in Germany Nordstream was a very important source of natural gas because Germany shut down its nuclear power generation and then effectively it replaced the baseline power generation electricity…”—

Sanctions Alternative — Pancevski argues that U.S. secondary sanctions could have stopped commercial dealings with Nord Stream without physical sabotage. Buyers in Germany and elsewhere in Europe would not have been able to purchase gas from the pipeline.

“But the biggest flaw in that theory was the very obvious thing that you know people who dealt with the issue knew is that sanctions are much more powerful than…”—

– Introduction: Who Blew Up Nord Stream?

Pancevski recounts the explosions, the gas bubbling up in the Baltic, and the scale of the damage, framing Nord Stream as a major act of infrastructure sabotage.

– How the Nord Stream Sabotage Was Carried Out

He describes a small team of divers, soldiers, and civilians using a rented yacht to plant explosives, and explains why vast undersea infrastructure is difficult to protect.

– Russia, the CIA and the Conspiracy Theories

Pancevski argues that Russia had little reason to destroy a strategic pipeline it spent decades building, and says sanctions—not explosives—were a more effective way for the U.S. to halt gas trade.

– The Ukrainian Connection and Dutch Intelligence

He says German investigators found no evidence of U.S. involvement, eventually ruled out Russia, and shifted focus to Ukraine after Dutch intelligence warned of a planned attack.

– Who Really Ordered the Attack?

Pancevski says General Zaluzhny approved the operation but that he lacks evidence President Zelensky knew; he describes conflicting accounts and missing records.

– Arrests, Trials and Political Consequences

German prosecutors have arrested suspects and plan a trial that could strain Berlin-Kyiv ties, while the AfD may use the case to argue against Ukraine aid and for renewed Russian gas ties.

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