This Energy Crisis Is Far More Dangerous Than It Looks | Doomberg

Doomberg argues that restricting Russian oil and diesel can backfire if reduced supply lifts prices enough to preserve or increase Russia’s revenue; he says Russian diesel is especially consequential because Russia supplied 800,000 barrels per day—about 11% of the tradable diesel market—in 2025. He points to the UK’s continued waiver for diesel and jet fuel refined in India from Russian crude as an example of restrictions being selectively relaxed when supplies are tight, and proposes targeting prices instead, including by escorting Russian and Iranian tankers to potentially push oil to $10–$15 per barrel.

Doomberg says refinery outages can simultaneously weaken crude demand and tighten diesel supply: losses in Russia and the Middle East left crude in excess supply while contributing to a diesel crack spread of about $105. He also notes that diesel prices are set at the margin in a relatively small tradable market, while the host says U.S. diesel costs more than $6 per gallon and affects groceries, farms, and the broader economy.

Doomberg warns that damage to a single Saudi water-treatment facility could jeopardize 5–6 million barrels per day of oil production for months or years, creating inflation risk. He argues that expanding supply across oil, gas, refined fuels, coal, renewables, and nuclear could lower global prices, while also noting that commodity prices can fall sharply when markets shift from shortage to glut.