US Real Estate Cycles: Dubious Speculation with Jason Pizzino

Jason Pizzino’s roughly 220-year framework places the current U.S. real-estate cycle around 2011–2012 and treats real estate as an earlier-cycle signal than stocks. Because real estate has historically peaked before equities, he says stocks could reach another major peak in the first half of 2027 if the prior approximately 27-month pattern repeats, while a U.S. housing trough could occur around 2029–2030.

The speakers view the market as potentially late-cycle: Pizzino describes a “winner’s curse” in which gains encourage leverage, IPOs, construction, and broader capital deployment, while also expecting the Federal Reserve to eventually raise rates at least once before the real-estate and stock-market cycles end. D.R. Horton’s historical tendency to weaken before broad stock-market peaks is presented as a potential warning signal, although the timing remains uncertain.

The national U.S. housing market may be near the top of its pricing cycle, but regional conditions are diverging, with San Francisco and other West Coast markets beginning to rebound after declines since roughly 2022. Pizzino also says current U.S. homebuilders could prove more resilient than in the prior cycle because they hold less land and may have less exposure to leveraged land positions.

Pizzino expects Australia’s real-estate downturn could be larger than the United States’ this cycle, citing declines of 5% to 10% in some areas, 20% to 25% at the high end, rates around 4.35%, and still-high inflation. His broader framework also emphasizes that U.S. capital flows affect markets such as Australia and Southeast Asia, linking U.S. cycle developments to regional housing conditions.