Is The Market Breaking Out Or Breaking Bad? | New Harbor Financial

The speakers distinguish the Treasury’s shift from longer- toward shorter-term debt from Federal Reserve quantitative easing, while arguing that fiscal concerns, inflation risk, and a higher term premium are pushing global bond yields higher. The dollar weakened sharply after the buyback announcement, alongside strong gains in non-dollar assets and precious metals.

The speakers argue that governments are more likely to print money, extend maturities, and inflate away purchasing power than pursue austerity or default, leading them to expect fiat currencies to lose value over coming decades. This framework coincided with a roughly 3% rise in gold and silver futures and an almost 7% gain in Bitcoin.

Mike describes the S&P 500 as breaking out after reaching 7,000 and adding roughly 500 points in about a month and a half, with a potential move from roughly 7,700 toward 8,500 if the breakout continues. Participation has broadened beyond mega-cap technology into banks, real estate, small caps, and equal-weighted indices, although the NASDAQ remains a laggard.

Despite all-time highs, the speakers warn that markets can top while momentum and breadth deteriorate beneath the surface, and they describe technology valuations and earnings expectations as vulnerable to gradual revisions. They also note that bubbles can persist through persuasive narratives even amid debt, oil-supply, strategic-reserve, Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-related concerns.