This Time Gold Will Rise While Stocks Crash | Alasdair Macleod

Macleod says the Houthis have effectively halted Saudi Arabia’s oil exports, which normally run at roughly 7–8 million barrels per day; separately, he predicts Saudi Arabia’s debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 33% to 100% within months amid collapsing GDP, no income, and enormous expenses.

Macleod links the Iran war to higher diesel, kerosene, and ship-bunker costs that raise transportation expenses, and predicts that expensive fuel, drought-related food shortages, and severe El Niño conditions will push livestock prices higher. He argues this would not be a temporary inflation spike and that either higher rates or weaker currencies would be bullish for gold, while rate increases would deepen the debt trap.

Macleod argues that higher costs could squeeze industrial margins and impair businesses’ ability to finance debt, triggering a slump that reduces tax revenue and raises welfare commitments. He contrasts this with past crises that began in the private sector, warning that a crisis originating in the public sector could spread to private businesses; he defines a debt trap as government revenue failing to cover rising interest costs.

Macleod says the Iran war has brought forward a significant decline in the dollar’s purchasing power and expects yields could exceed 10% or even reach 30%; he argues that higher yields could expose a debt trap and weaken the dollar if politicians refuse to address it. If employment fell to roughly 10–15%, he predicts the Fed would use what he calls limitless QE, which he says would further raise yields because of debt-trap concerns.

With yields above 5%, Macleod says equities are already dangerous and warns that further rate increases could pop the equity bubble, noting fatigue in AI stocks. He expects foreign investors—who have roughly $25 trillion invested—to run for the exits if the currency and equity market fall, while acknowledging that not all of that investment can leave.