PodcastTFTCJeremy Ryan Slate

They've Done This Before... And It's Happening Again | Jeremy Ryan Slate

The discussion draws parallels between Rome’s political and monetary strains and current concerns about inflation, government spending, and the dollar. The guest details Roman coin debasement, Constantine’s gold reform, and the role of geography, military loyalty, and the church in the empire’s resilience. Other speakers raise concerns about modern monetary policy, supply-chain dependence on China, crypto rulemaking, and the distributional effects of newly created money.

InflationMonetary PolicyGovernment DebtCurrenciesChinaCrypto Regulation

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Key Takeaways

The guest links Rome’s military instability to incentives: soldiers backed rival emperors who promised better rewards, while Federati forces fighting under their own commanders could turn against Rome if promises were broken. Both examples show the risks he associates with relying on military loyalty secured through compensation.

The guest contrasts the denarius’s decline—from about 95% silver purity under Augustus to roughly 2–4% by the 270s, with the precise figure uncertain—with Constantine’s gold reform beginning around 314. He says degraded coins could disrupt commerce, while the solidus helped anchor confidence for centuries alongside silver in a two-tiered economy.

The guest says Constantine made Christianity legal in 313, while it became the empire’s official religion only in 380 under Theodosius; he presents shared belief as one possible source of unity. He also says the Roman church gained prominence by feeding and clothing people when the central government could no longer pay for services.

The host argues that Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment to everyone if he won the November election would further dilute the dollar and worsen inflation. Separately, the guest estimates U.S. inflation could be 3,000%–4,000% versus roughly 15,000% in Rome in the mid-270s, while acknowledging uncertainty and warning that the worst U.S. inflation may not have hit yet.

GEO-POLITICS

Federati Loyalty — The guest says Rome recruited non-Roman troops and organized some as Federati, who fought under their own commanders but Rome’s flag. He warns that broken promises and reliance on compensation could turn these forces against Rome.

“And that's where they start bringing in initially troops into the legions and then they create a policy in the late 3rd and fourth century called the Federati…”—

Rival Emperors — The guest says about 26 men claimed the title of emperor during the 50 years from 235 to 284. He links the instability to soldiers backing claimants who promised better rewards.

“And in that 26th period from 235 to 284, 50-year period, sorry, had about 26 different men claimed to be emperor…”—

Trump Payment — The host says Trump proposed giving everyone $5,000 if he won the November election. The host argues the payment would further dilute the dollar and worsen inflation.

“We had our co checks…”—

TECHNOLOGY

AI Job Disruption — The speaker warns that AI eliminating some jobs, alongside small businesses’ difficulty paying entry-level workers what they ask, could cause major disruption if the issue is not addressed. He calls the potential disruption unprecedented but does not quantify it.

“with you know the advent of more AI eliminating certain jobs and things like that…”—

ECONOMY

Constantine’s Gold Reform — The guest says Constantine began minting gold coins around 314 and continued annually into the late 320s, gradually moving the empire toward a gold standard. He says the solidus remained in use for centuries and gold anchored confidence while silver continued circulating in a two-tiered economy. He attributes 700 years without real inflation to the Eastern Empire’s monetary reform.

“The Eastern Roman Empire which history likes to call the Byzantine Empire that word didn't exist until the 16th century…”—

Roman Coin Debasement — The guest says the denarius fell from about 95% silver purity in Augustus’s time to roughly 2–4% by the 270s, while noting that purity varied and the precise figure is uncertain. He estimates a 90% loss of silver content over about 200 years. Coinage paid the military and projected imperial strength; visibly degraded coins, he warns, could be refused or require more coins in exchange, disrupting commerce.

“So very often we're talking about monetary debasement, we're actually talking about the empire…”—

Salt Rations — The guest says dissatisfied Roman soldiers received a salt ration in addition to their pay during the third century. Salt was valuable and useful for many purposes.

“What happens in the third century is soldiers aren't incredibly happy with the money…”—

MARKETS

Reserve-Asset Shift — The speaker argues that foreign governments, with China an early mover, have reduced their Treasury holdings. He says gold is becoming a de facto reserve asset and some oil is being traded in yuan, presenting these as signs of a shift away from Treasuries and the dollar.

“So like China foreign governments aren't holding treasuries anymore…”—

Intro

The host introduces the Roman-history discussion through a Bitcoin lens, while Slate argues that reliable money can help societies withstand serious political and institutional mistakes.

Roman Money Through Bitcoin Lens

Slate explains that Roman coinage served both as military pay and as imperial messaging, then distinguishes the denarius from the gold solidus and traces the currency’s changing role.

Denarius Debasement Explained

Slate traces denarius debasement to military pay increases, larger armies, and emperor-making incentives, while describing how coins lost silver content over generations.

Military Loyalty and Rome's Fall

Slate argues that military loyalty weakened as Rome relied increasingly on recruits and federated forces bound by pay, while noting that the Western Empire’s final transition was comparatively orderly.

Third Century Crisis

Slate describes soldiers noticing monetary deterioration first, explains the third-century succession crisis, and recounts how price controls helped drive trade into black markets and barter.

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The show runs several sponsor messages before the conversation resumes with a discussion of Roman tax collection.

Modern Inflation and Cantillon Effect

The speakers compare Rome’s reliance on debased currency with modern money creation, inflation, minimum-wage policy, and the Cantillon effect’s unequal distribution of new money.

Constantine's Gold Standard

Slate says Constantine restored confidence through gradual gold coin issuance and tax payments in gold, while Christianity helped build shared belief and geography strengthened the eastern empire.

Roman Taxes Then and Now

Slate describes Roman tax farming, census-taking, and unpopular collection practices, then the speakers compare these systems with modern taxes, spending, and government waste.

Is America Rome Today

Slate links America’s centralization to the 1913 Federal Reserve and constitutional amendments, compares modern political strains with Rome, and warns that inflation may worsen.

Manufacturing and Trade Policy

The speakers debate military overreach and economic expansion, with Slate arguing that domestic manufacturing and industry are important to restoring economic resilience and reducing dependence on China.

Podcasting 2.0 and Bitcoin

The conversation turns to No Agenda, Bitcoin-enabled podcasting, peer-to-peer payments, global Treasury demand, and government efforts to establish crypto regulatory rules.

Gold BRICS and Treasury

Slate warns that people abandoning a currency can signal systemic breakdown, and connects Rome’s weakening institutions to present-day social fragmentation and a loss of shared civic identity.

Social Fabric and Opting Out

Slate says shared culture must be rebuilt through local relationships, reading, civic participation, and community institutions rather than waiting for government to create it.

Rebuilding Shared Culture

The speakers argue that monetary reform should challenge short-term economic incentives and that fixing money is central to addressing fiscal, social, and institutional problems.

Fixing the Money

Slate recommends practical local involvement and community-building, while the host emphasizes that monetary reform is a key lever for changing national policy.

Examining Debased Roman Coins

Slate displays Roman coins from different periods, showing how declining precious-metal content and deteriorating appearance reflected lost confidence and disrupted everyday exchange.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

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