PodcastBanklessSpencer Bogart

The Next Bull Market Is Hiding in Plain Sight

Crypto is moving toward institutional adoption as regulated rails, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and cheaper block space expand its potential beyond its original subculture. The discussion also argues that value in AI may shift toward enterprise workflows and application-specific moats, while crypto protocols increasingly combine platform and application roles. Speakers expect DeFi and stablecoins to scale substantially, including a forecast that stablecoin market capitalization could rise from roughly $300 billion to the trillions by 2030.

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Key Takeaways

Crypto is moving toward regulated institutional use through permissioned rails and compliance layered onto permissionless networks, but adoption is slower than AI because it must connect hundreds of existing financial systems. Institutional buying during lower prices is presented as evidence that participation increasingly reflects independent conviction rather than purely rising-price narratives.

Tokenization could make financial assets more composable by moving them onto public infrastructure, enabling borrowing, securities lending, and competition among asset-servicing providers. However, tokenized equities may require hybrid access controls, while tokenized funds still need specialized infrastructure and remain constrained by 10- to 15-year lockups and securities restrictions.

Stablecoins have expanded beyond crypto-native use cases into dollar access, payments, cross-border transfers, and remittances, while institutional participation is bringing tokenized equities, money-market funds, Treasuries, and dollars on-chain. The speaker estimates that each $1 billion of net-new issuance could generate roughly $122 billion in annual economic activity and about $19 million in downstream protocol revenue at approximately 120 turnovers per year.

The speaker forecasts that stablecoin market capitalization could rise from roughly $300 billion to the trillions by 2030, assigning the outlook more than 90% certainty and saying $2 trillion is achievable. The proposed flywheel is that additional on-chain dollars increase liquidity, attract developers, expand applications, and draw in more capital.

Crypto’s infrastructure has shifted from scarce, expensive block space to cheap and abundant capacity: Uniswap users paid roughly $5 to $10 per exchange in 2019, while Layer 2 networks now support broader applications. The speakers argue that this cost reduction is helping value move toward applications, with application-layer fees surpassing infrastructure fees in 2025 after infrastructure captured more than 70% of user fees in 2021.

TECHNOLOGY

Crypto Institutionalization — Crypto is becoming more regulated and institutionally oriented, with permissioned rails and compliance developing on top of permissionless networks. The transition is slower than AI because crypto must connect hundreds of existing financial systems.

“The conferences are full of suits. Like the conversation is about permissioned rails, you know, compliance and these types of things…”—

Tokenized Equity — Tokenized equities can provide DeFi composability, but some current structures give investors a debt instrument tied to an SPV rather than direct ownership of the underlying shares. Direct ownership would likely require restricting access by anonymous or hostile actors.

“The share, right? Like not a debt instrument into an SPV in the Cayman Islands, right? So, I think that like there's a little bit of a tension there…”—

Early Fund Tokenization — Blockchain Capital tokenized its venture fund in 2017 because it believed blockchain could disrupt venture-capital distribution and ownership. It chose to build the model itself.

“And we're sitting there saying, "Hey, listen. We are a venture capital firm that is dedicated to the blockchain industry."…”—

MARKETS

Buy-and-Burn Demand — Buy-and-burn remains a common token-value mechanism because tokenholder rights are unclear, and many protocols have not shown they can deploy treasury capital successfully into adjacent growth opportunities.

“But today like two things have happened…”—

Institutional Buying — Institutions are entering crypto while prices are down, which the speaker views as evidence that participation is increasingly driven by independent conviction rather than rising-price narratives.

“For the first time ever institutions are leaning in while prices are down…”—

Bitcoin Hedge — Bitcoin is described as an interesting potential escape valve in a world where governments continue debasing fiat currencies, although the speaker leaves the ownership decision to individuals.

“Important assets that'll be an escape valve in some ways, right? I mean, if you think about Bitcoin, are you know, governments going to stop debasing their fiat money? No…”—

FORECASTS

DeFi Scale — DeFi has roughly $75 billion in aggregate deposits, and the speakers argue that the sector should aim to grow toward trillions over the coming years or decade. Buy-and-burn may become less dominant as protocols improve their ability to deploy treasury capital.

“I mean, if you think about it, we've got like what around 75 billion of, you know, aggregate deposit base in in DeFi today…”—

On-Chain Finance — The speaker argues that institutions and traditional finance moving on-chain could expand the scale of global finance substantially, allowing protocols to remain relatively thin while participating in much larger markets.

“So like if if you have a small take but you expand the size of you know global finance by an order of magnitude you could still be fat by…”—

Buybacks, Burns and Tokenholder Trust

The speakers defend buybacks and burns as a credible way for crypto protocols to signal tokenholder alignment while regulatory uncertainty and weak value-capture track records persist.

Why Blockchain Capital Is Doubling Down

Blockchain Capital explains why it is doubling down on crypto, citing regulatory progress, institutional demand, emerging applications, and the industry’s still-early position on the adoption curve.

Institutions Arrive as Crypto OGs Lose Faith

Crypto OGs are disillusioned by the industry’s shift from cypherpunk independence toward regulated institutional finance, though the speakers argue decentralization and permissionless systems remain valuable.

From Infrastructure Scarcity to Abundant Blockspace

As blockspace becomes cheap and abundant, crypto’s value capture is moving from infrastructure toward applications, creating thinner protocols but potentially much larger financial markets.

What AI Can Learn From Crypto

AI and crypto financing cycles resemble each other, but AI may similarly shift value from frontier models toward enterprise workflows, specialized data, and application-layer moats.

Stablecoins Become Onchain Working Capital

Stablecoins are becoming productive onchain working capital rather than merely payment instruments, with institutional adoption accelerating a flywheel that also pulls tokenized traditional assets onto blockchains.

The Stablecoin Revenue Multiplier

The speakers estimate that each billion dollars of new stablecoin issuance can generate roughly $19 million in annual downstream protocol revenue, creating a substantial DeFi revenue opportunity.

Aave and Open Financial Infrastructure

Aave illustrates how crypto protocols can be both applications and platforms, expanding from stablecoin collateral toward tokenized securities and open, composable financial infrastructure.

The Roadmap for Tokenized Equities

Tokenized equities may first expand global access to U.S. stocks, then become more valuable through composability, collateral use, securities lending, and competitive onchain financial services.

Public Chains, Ownership and Compliance

Public chains and compliance need not be mutually exclusive: regulated tokenized equities may operate alongside permissionless crypto markets while preserving the broader cypherpunk alternative.

Blockchain Capital’s Tokenized Fund

Blockchain Capital tokenized Fund Three in 2017 to expand venture access and improve liquidity, learning that compliant secondary trading required infrastructure that largely did not yet exist.

Bringing BCAP Fully Onchain

BCAP’s next phase focuses on onchain capital efficiency, including potential lending and liquidity integrations, with Aave V4 and clearer regulation making those capabilities increasingly practical.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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