The Final Melt-Up of a 43 Year Bull Market Continues with David Hunter

The speaker expects the Iran flare‑up to be short‑lived—China could quietly pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—while a nascent U.S.–China détente may include concrete commercial quid‑pro‑quo (limited reopening of U.S. chip exports, explicitly naming Nvidia, in exchange for large Chinese purchases like soybeans and Boeing), though persistent frictions (trade deficit, subsidized autos, espionage) mean any deal will be politically bumpy.

Semiconductors and broader tech are the primary engines of the current parabolic market move: strong earnings and constrained supply should keep semis leading the run, with software ETF IGV cited as a rebound candidate from the mid‑70s toward 110 (~30%+ upside) as the S&P meltup targets lofty levels (9,500–10,000) by mid‑year.

Precious and industrial metals have been behaving like a risk‑on trade—gold is targeted as high as 6,800 and silver 180, copper targets of $8–$9—presenting large upside for miners and leveraged junior/mid‑tier ETFs (SILJ, GDXJ), even as higher oil raises mining costs and geopolitical resolution could reverse commodity dislocations.

The Fed is viewed as unlikely to raise rates further (the incoming chair will focus on balance‑sheet policy rather than hiking), but history and the speaker's scenario imply that a deep deflationary bust would compel a return to massive QE—potentially Fed‑scale increments (~$20T) and global money‑printing in the tens of trillions—i.e., 'QE infinity' if necessary.