PodcastBanklessRyan Sean Adams

The Bull Market Is Back! But Bitcoin Isn’t Leading It?

The discussion examines whether rising Treasury yields reflect inflation and fiscal deterioration or a strong economy competing for capital, including approximately $5 trillion of AI investment and roughly $2 trillion of Treasury issuance. It presents Bitcoin's rally, holder rotation, and technical indicators as possible early-bull-market signals, while noting questions about Bitcoin's cash flow and the next marginal buyer. Other themes include debasement hedges, revenue-linked token outperformance, tokenized portfolios, prediction-market ethics, and conditional outlooks for Bitcoin and Zcash.

BitcoinTokenizationInterest RatesGovernment DebtArtificial IntelligenceTechnical Analysis

Preview · 23 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

The discussion attributes elevated U.S. long-term yields to a combination of stubborn inflation, weak fiscal discipline, approximately $5 trillion of AI buildout, and roughly $2 trillion of Treasury issuance competing for capital. A bullish alternative is that high yields may also reflect a strong economy and competition from equities, rather than only fiscal deterioration.

The episode frames approximately $40 trillion of U.S. debt and $1 trillion in annual interest payments as sources of dollar-debasement risk, leading speakers to argue that asset ownership may be preferable to holding dollars or bonds. Suggested hedges include gold, foreign-currency assets, non-U.S. real estate, non-U.S. companies, and cryptocurrencies, although the discussion cautions that other currencies may also be debasing and high-quality non-U.S. companies are limited.

Bitcoin's rally from roughly $63,000 to $78,000 and then from about $77,000 to $85,000 occurred despite 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reaching 5.15% and 5.44%, respectively. The episode cites a roughly 0.18 inverse correlation between 10-year yields and Bitcoin but says holder rotation and seller exhaustion, rather than an immediate yield-driven decline, were associated with the advance.

Speakers describe Bitcoin's market structure as supportive of an early bull-market interpretation: 37% of supply is held by cohorts with a $56,000-to-$92,000 cost basis, while Bitcoin has recorded a golden cross, reclaimed its 50-week moving average, and closed monthly above $78,800. The current drawdown was also described as milder than the prior bear market, falling only about 5% to 8% below the $65,500 200-week moving average versus roughly 35% previously.

The guest identifies $65,000 as the key downside threshold for the early-bull thesis, saying that a move to that level or several monthly closes below it would invalidate the view. This conditional risk level contrasts with the technical and holder-structure signals the episode presents as supportive.

TECHNOLOGY

AI Programmable Money — BlackRock is promoting the thesis that successful AI adoption will increase demand for programmable money, which the discussion associates with crypto assets and blockchain infrastructure. The episode presents this as a narrative and potential use case, not an established causal outcome.

“They're propagating this story that basically with the success of AI, what is AI going to need? It's going to need programmable money. What is programmable money?…”—

ECONOMY

Structural Yield Pressures — The discussion attributes rising U.S. long-term bond yields to stubbornly high inflation, weak fiscal discipline, and competition for capital from approximately $5 trillion of AI buildout and roughly $2 trillion of Treasury issuance. Howard Marks's interpretation is presented as an argument about the forces behind yields, not settled fact.

“So it's called shall we repeal the law of economics and he gives reasons three reasons for why yields are rising and it's reasons that our audience is probably familiar…”—

Debt And Debasement — The episode presents U.S. fiscal deterioration as a source of dollar-debasement risk, citing approximately $40 trillion of debt and $1 trillion in annual interest payments. It argues that tax revenue does not cover the debt and that holding assets may be preferable to holding dollars or bonds; this is explicitly presented as the speakers' view.

“It's it's kind of flexing that golden credit card capability, 40 trillion in debt, 1 trillion a year in interest payments now exceeding the amount that we spend on our…”—

Debasement Hedges — Suggested hedges against U.S. dollar debasement include foreign-currency assets, gold, non-U.S. real estate, non-U.S. companies, and cryptocurrencies. The discussion cautions that other currencies may also be debasing and that the supply of high-quality non-U.S. companies is limited.

“and he said you can do a few things…”—

MARKETS

Treasury Yield Highs — The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 5.15% and the 30-year yield at 5.44%. These levels are described as more than 20-year highs and a potential headwind for crypto.

“The US 10year is at an all-time high of 5.15% yields. The 30-year is at 5.44%. These are highs not seen for over 20 years.”—

Bitcoin Rally — Bitcoin rose from roughly $63,000 to $78,000, then from about $77,000 to $85,000. The second move came off the 200-day exponential moving average and was described as an eight-month high.

“But we have since made a second leg up from about $77,000 up to $85,000. And now people think it's on. I also think it's on…”—

Bitcoin Holder Reset — The episode says Bitcoin's holder structure has reset, with 37% of supply held by cohorts whose cost basis falls between $56,000 and $92,000. Coin movement from weak hands to strong hands is presented as a foundation for the next market phase.

“Anyway, that reset has completed. Now we've got a bunch of strong hand and in the 56k to 92k range of Bitcoin. 37% of all supply now sits there…”—

FORECASTS

Bitcoin Invalidation Level — The guest identifies $65,000 as a key downside threshold for the early-bull thesis. Reaching that level or recording several monthly closes below it would, in the guest's view, break the thesis.

“If we do now, here's a here's a if type of scenario…”—

Intro

The hosts argue that Bitcoin has entered an early bull market, citing its reclaim of key moving averages, golden-cross confirmation, holder rotation, leverage resets, and improving on-chain indicators.

Early Bull Confirmed

They examine whether revenue-generating tokens such as Ethena, Uniswap, Jupiter, and Arbitrum can outperform Bitcoin, while questioning Bitcoin’s cash flow and identifying its next marginal institutional buyers.

New Bull Market Leaders

The discussion treats rising Treasury yields as a combination of persistent inflation, worsening fiscal deficits, and intense capital demand from roughly $5 trillion of AI investment alongside $2 trillion of Treasury issuance.

Rising Yields & the Debasement Trade

The hosts analyze allegations that Kalshi’s derivatives volume was inflated through wash trading, repeated $5,500 transactions, market-maker incentives, and potentially misleading volume accounting.

Kalshi Wash Trading Drama

They discuss Vitalik Buterin’s support for Trueo as a decentralized, ethical prediction market and debate whether principled design matters without meaningful usage, traction, or product-market fit.

Vitalik Backs Trueo

The episode previews Variational’s large token launch and explains how Ondo and BlackRock are creating tokenized portfolios that package professionally managed investment strategies into on-chain vaults.

New Tokens & Institutional Crypto Expansion

They connect BlackRock’s machine-native-money thesis to crypto adoption, then cover Binance’s Circle investment, Coinbase’s retail IPO access, and the broader institutional expansion of digital assets.

Related Episodes

Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

Our Commentary · Request Removal