SILVER About To 'Go Berserk' - $1,000 'Wouldn't Shock Me': Michael Oliver

Oliver argues that a government-bond and fiat-currency crisis is unfolding first in Japan, then potentially in the United States and Europe, with money printing to support the yen and bond market degrading currencies and driving inflation in essentials such as food, rent, and housing. He predicts that a debt-market crisis could ultimately produce a bond panic and unlimited central-bank intervention.

Oliver argues that aggressive monetary easing does not guarantee equity gains: he cites an 82% Nasdaq decline and 50% S&P decline after the 2001 rate cuts, and a 50% market decline through March 2009 despite rate cuts and quantitative easing. He also says investors should monitor financial-sector and commercial-real-estate stress because a major-bank credit problem could trigger further money printing.

Oliver presents gold as a long-term beneficiary of currency degradation but emphasizes that it advances in waves, citing roughly eightfold gains from bear-market lows in 1976–1980 and 2001–2011. He argues that gold has preserved purchasing power better than the S&P 500, whose gains since 2000 largely matched monetary debasement, and has outperformed equities over the past 10–15 years.

Oliver argues that silver is unusually depressed relative to gold and other metals—most of which trade at roughly four times their 1980 levels—while silver is only slightly above its 1980 high and has faced a supply deficit for about six years. On that basis, he says silver could correct rapidly and overshoot, with scenarios ranging from $150 to $250 and a $1,000 price within the next year not shocking him.