Paul Tudor Jones’ Call for 2027 & Vibes 10/13/26

PodcastSquawk PodPaul Tudor JonesOct 13

Paul Tudor Jones sees a difficult 2027 for stocks, despite the possibility of a strong fourth quarter, and points to debt issuance, deficits, and potential fiscal pressure as risks. He also describes a market divided between companies adopting AI and those that are not, while warning that AI safety concerns could weigh on technology valuations. Other discussion spans Musk’s Republican donations, supermarket cyberattacks, Kroger’s planned job cuts and legal dispute, and Adam Grant’s advice on workplace relationships and communication.

Equities Fiscal Policy Government Debt Artificial Intelligence AI Safety Market Valuations

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Key Takeaways

Paul Tudor Jones says 85% of Americans want AI regulation and argues political pressure will bring it about; Anthropic has warned that small models could replicate across internet-connected devices and be difficult to shut down, while Jones says AI outputs can be hard to interpret because of billions or trillions of possible permutations. Together, these points frame AI safety as both a public-policy concern and a technical-control challenge.

Jones describes a two-speed market in which companies adopting AI move differently from those that do not, and says he thinks Anthropic will do well, with much of OpenAI’s prospects resting on what Anthropic does. He also argues that AI safety concerns and accountability rhetoric have contributed to technology multiple compression, and says he would diversify or reduce positions when AI makes business prospects hard to see.

Jones says AI-related issuance could reach 3.6% of GDP if forecasts are met, while corporate issuance is already up 50% since 2022 in a debt market crowded by sovereign borrowing. He estimates a 60% chance that markets will force fiscal action and argues that, although interventions might help Treasury prices in the short term, reducing the deficit is necessary to change their long-run path; he says a 100-basis-point yield increase would raise the projected 2036 deficit from 6.5% to 8%.

GEO-POLITICS

Musk’s GOP Giving — Elon Musk has sent more than $275 million to Republican groups since July, including roughly $160 million to the main super PAC backing Republican Senate candidates. His reported giving has exceeded his spending during the 2024 presidential election.

“Elon Musk emerging as the biggest known donor of the midterm election cycle. The trillionaire now sent more than, $275,000,000 to Republican groups since July…”—

AI Regulation — Paul Tudor Jones says 85% of Americans want AI regulation and argues that political pressure will bring it about. He warns that unregulated intelligence can be harmful.

“Intelligence has been the hallmark of why The US has been so great from the founding fathers to mainframes in the sixties, personal computers in the eighties, internet in the…”—

TECHNOLOGY

Replicating AI Models — Anthropic says small AI models may develop within months the ability to replicate across internet-connected devices and use their computing power rather than relying on data centers. The company says they could be difficult to shut down if this happens, because there would be no centralized shutoff point.

“In a blog post, the company said that small AI models are, in its words, months away from developing the capabilities needed to replicate themselves across Internet connected devices like…”—

Supermarket Cyberattack — Reuters reported that fridges at several major supermarket chains in France heated to as much as 122°F during attacks targeting supermarkets. The attacks reportedly caused refrigeration failures.

“Hackers targeted hundreds of French supermarkets in an attack that reportedly caused refrigerators and freezers to overheat and not spoil food, sparked fires…”—

ECONOMY

Kroger Cuts, Lawsuit — Kroger plans to cut more than a third of its corporate workforce, or 3,000 jobs, over three years. Albertsons is seeking at least $8 billion from Kroger over their failed merger and accuses Kroger’s leadership of making lowball offers to regulators.

“Grocery giant Kroger is planning to cut more than a third of its corporate workforce or 3,000 jobs over the next three years…”—

AI Issuance, Deficits — Jones says AI-related issuance could reach 3.6% of GDP if forecasts are met, exceeding the scale of earlier infrastructure buildouts. He also says that with interest rates 100 basis points higher, $120 billion would need to be added to the deficit under the prior-year CBO baseline.

“I think what's different this time is the combination of the AI related issuance. It's gonna be something like 3.6% of GDP if these forecasts are met…”—

New York Poverty — Jones says New York City’s poverty rate is twice the national average. He describes closing the gap between extreme wealth and extreme poverty as an important goal.

“So we're trying to close that gap between extreme wealth and between extreme poverty. And New York City's got the highest poverty rate, twice the national average…”—

MARKETS

AI Market Divide — Paul Tudor Jones describes the market as two-speed, like 1999: companies adopting AI and those not adopting it are moving in opposite directions.

“Boy, it still feels like 1999, a two speed market…”—

Bumble Take-Private — A report that Bumble could be taken private at about a $1 billion valuation sent its shares up 50%. The company had a market value of about $580 million, while its shares remained down more than 90% from their 2021 IPO.

“Dating app company, Bumble, reportedly in talks to be taken private in a transaction that values the company at about $1,000,000,000…”—

FORECASTS

2027 Market Outlook — Jones says 2027 will be challenging for the stock market, citing what he calls the most negative U.S. stock-market flow picture since 2002. He also says a very strong fourth quarter is possible, based on midterm-cycle patterns and positioning.

“Clearly, if you can just go back and look at midterm cycles, a whole variety of things, it would tell you that we should have a really, really strong fourth…”—

Midterm-Cycle Rally — Jones says historical midterm cycles suggest a strong fourth quarter, with the market typically bottoming in late October or early November before a subsequent push. He describes this outcome as possible, not certain.

“Clearly, if you can just go back and look at midterm cycles, a whole variety of things, it would tell you that we should have a really, really strong fourth…”—

Oil Price Upside — Paul Tudor Jones says he is bullish on oil and thinks it could rally another $20 or $25. He gives no timeframe for the move in this passage.

“Long oil, bullish on oil. I think it can rally another 20 or $25. But if that rallies another $25, don't you think that the equity market It'll hate it…”—

AI Devices And Supermarket Cyberattacks

The hosts debate whether phones listen to conversations, discuss Anthropic's warning about AI models spreading across connected devices, and report on cyberattacks disrupting French supermarkets.

Kroger Cuts And Bumble Sale

Kroger plans major corporate job cuts as it faces Albertsons' lawsuit over their failed merger, while Bumble reportedly explores a take-private deal after a steep post-IPO decline.

Paul Tudor Jones On AI Markets

Jones describes a two-speed market reminiscent of 1999, with AI adopters pulling away, and sees a possible strong fourth quarter before a difficult 2027 for stocks.

AI Safety And Regulation

Jones warns that opaque AI systems pose safety risks and argues that public demand will bring regulation, while praising Jay Clayton as a capable leader for navigating the issue.

Oil And Iran Risks

Jones is bullish on oil and sees room for a further rally, while cautioning that higher prices would hurt equities and that a post-election resolution to Middle East tensions remains uncertain.

Debt Issuance And Fiscal Pressure

Jones argues that rising corporate and AI-related debt issuance could crowd sovereign borrowers, force a reckoning over unsustainable deficits, and eventually pressure bond and stock markets.

Treasury Market Intervention

Jones credits Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's market expertise but says interventions can only offer temporary relief; lasting stability requires addressing the federal deficit.

Robin Hood And New York Poverty

Jones says record wealth alongside record poverty makes charitable giving essential, and argues that prosperity should be measured by what people give back as well as what they accumulate.

Adam Grant On Deeper Connections

Grant recommends moving beyond small talk with thoughtful questions and explains how accepting people while setting behavior-specific boundaries can improve personal and workplace relationships.

AI Companions And Workplace Vibes

Grant cautions that AI companions cannot replace mutual human relationships, shares ways to give feedback and work with difficult colleagues, and recommends clarifying ambiguous messages by phone.