PodcastDavid Lin ReportChris Vermeulen

Panic Selling Continues; Trader Dumps Stocks Before Next 20% Drop | Chris Vermeulen

Vermeulen expects significant real estate downside and points to tighter lending, falling prices, and potential buyer opportunities. In markets, he describes rotation away from technology, warns about leverage and prolonged recoveries, and says price confirmation should guide reentry. His outlook includes a possible market bounce alongside continued bond weakness, conditional downside for QQQ, higher oil targets, and further potential declines in gold and silver.

Real EstateEquitiesTrading StrategiesRisk ManagementTechnical AnalysisGold

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Key Takeaways

Vermeulen forecasts at least a 20% real estate price drop, while the host points to weak Vancouver court-ordered sales—about 38% of listings versus a typical 60%—and a Shaughnessy home that sold for $10 million after being listed at $17 million. Vermeulen also cites a Florida home that cost about $175,000 after the 2008 crisis versus about $550,000 before it, and says more listings and widespread sales below asking prices could signal a bottom.

Vermeulen describes money rotating out of technology and into defensive stocks, but says utilities remain in a downtrend and consumer staples’ 14% rally has not produced an attractive chart; he identifies healthcare as the exception, citing a breakout and bull-flag pattern. For reentering growth assets, he says price confirmation should come first, followed by positive money flow, volume, and strengthening sentiment.

Vermeulen warns that investors may wait a long time to recover prior highs: he estimates a 75-year-old who began investing at 20 spent 26.5 years, or more than 33% of that period, getting back to previous highs. He also says a 25% market pullback could become a 50%–75% loss with 2:1 or 3:1 leverage, potentially forcing traders out before a recovery.

ECONOMY

Housing Downturn — Vermeulen expects a major real estate downturn, forecasting a price drop of at least 20%. He says rising mortgage rates and potential layoffs could contribute to a correction and create an opportunity for cash buyers. Financially stressed banks may tighten lending even as prices fall.

“I believe the real estate market is going to have a very big downturn…”—

MARKETS

Defensive Rotation — Vermeulen describes money rotating out of technology and into defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples, while the equal-weighted stock market rises. He suggests that peaking yields may be contributing to the market bounce.

“So, you know, when we look at the 10-year, it's pulling back and we go and look at the bond chart and it, you know, the bond chart looks really…”—

Recovery Timelines — Vermeulen argues that buy-and-hold investors can spend long stretches recovering prior highs. He estimates that a 75-year-old investor who began at 20 spent 26.5 years—or more than 33% of that investment period—getting back to previous highs. He acknowledges that buying dips works over the long run, but says investors do not know how far a decline will go.

“Like for example, David, if you're 75 years old and you started investing in the stock market when you're 20, 26 and a half of those years are years where…”—

Leverage Risk — Vermeulen warns that leverage can turn a 25% market pullback into a 50%–75% loss for traders using 2:1 or 3:1 margin or leveraged ETFs, potentially forcing them out before a recovery. He advises against trying to catch falling securities outside precious metals and cautions that a rebound does not necessarily make the trade sound.

“This one here was 11%. Now, keep in mind, David, most people are using margin, usually 2:1, 3:1, or sometimes they're using leveraged ETF…”—

FORECASTS

Bond Outlook — Vermeulen expects the 10-year note to meet resistance and pull back, potentially bringing a sharp bond bounce, a weaker U.S. dollar, higher stocks, and a bid for gold. He considers the bond rally a countertrend move: yields should rise again, he expects, and bonds should remain in a downtrend, with rallies potentially sold into.

“Listen, 10-year note is about to hit a resistance level. Expect it to pause and pull back…”—

Cycle Low — Vermeulen says broad weakness across the equal-weighted S&P 500, Russell, and Dow reflects a shared negative investor bias, and that the market was approaching a critical cycle low. He expects a bounce to probably begin, with yields potentially topping and bonds bottoming.

“Everything is linked together. So, instead of thinking there's five different events happening causing all of them to move, it's actually just the wave of sentiment shifting…”—

QQQ Downside — Vermeulen says the Nasdaq's short-term trend has turned negative and money is flowing out, while its long-term trend remains unchanged. He warns that a QQQ break and close below roughly 660 could expose it to a decline toward about 555.

“So believe it or not the trend actually changed today or yesterday on this on the Nasdaq…”—

Market Crash Warning

Vermeulen says bond yields may have peaked temporarily, but the longer-term trend remains higher; he sees the recent bond rally as a countertrend bounce and expects yields to rise again.

Have Bond Yields Peaked?

He links yields, bond prices, stocks, the dollar, and gold through shifting market sentiment, arguing that the yield pullback is likely a technical correction before the uptrend resumes.

The Great Market Rotation

Vermeulen describes money rotating away from technology and into defensive areas as a broad sentiment shift, while stressing that linked assets tend to turn around the same time.

Why He Sold Tech Stocks

He says he exited Nasdaq and leveraged QQQ positions after his signals turned negative, locking in gains and waiting for price action to confirm a new entry.

Nasdaq's Critical Support

A break below QQQ’s key pivot near 660 and its 50% retracement could open the way toward roughly 555, making the current pullback potentially more serious.

Buy And Hold Risks

Vermeulen argues buy-and-hold can leave investors waiting years for markets to recover, while leverage can magnify losses and force traders out during sharp declines.

When To Buy Stocks Again

He says he will reenter only after prices establish an uptrend and strong money flows and sentiment confirm the move.

Defensive Sector Outlook

He sees healthcare as technically stronger than utilities and consumer staples, citing its rising long-term trend, moving averages, and bullish chart pattern.

Gold & Silver Price Targets

Vermeulen calls gold and silver bear markets on daily charts and says they may fall to about $3,100 and $39 before becoming more attractive wealth-building opportunities.

Oil To $120?

He projects oil could rise toward $107 and then around $120, citing chart targets and persistent Middle East risks, with a downturn more likely if the economy weakens.

Buying The Dip

He advises against catching falling securities, but treats gold and silver differently as both potential insurance and long-term assets at sharply lower measured levels.

Housing Crash Warning

Vermeulen expects Canadian real estate to fall at least 20% as mortgage costs and economic weakness pressure prices, creating an opportunity for buyers with available cash.

Vancouver Foreclosures Surge

The host cites Vancouver’s rising court-ordered listings and weak sales, while Vermeulen says housing distress could deepen and points to past steep property discounts.

When To Buy Real Estate

He would look for abundant listings, below-asking sales, and tight mortgage availability as signs of a real estate bottom, then consider buying multifamily properties.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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