PodcastCommodity CultureClive Thompson

Market Crash Would Be 'Very Good For SILVER' Plus My Top 4 Silver Stocks: Clive Thompson

The conversation links macro risks—currency 'restarts', rising debt and near‑4% inflation—to demand for gold and silver, noting central banks' record gold holdings and the metals' role as hedges if real rates stay near zero. On technology, Starlink profits are being used to subsidize other SpaceX ventures, corporate AI rollouts face slow, multi‑year adoption and heavy capex (electricity ≈ $60bn vs. capital ≈ $800bn–$1.2trn), and vendor financing can mask fragile AI earnings. Markets commentary highlights silver's sensitivity to rate and oil dynamics, seasonal upside in miners with many trading at sub‑10 P/Es, scenario modeling with Monte Carlo, and valuation risks from concentrated mega‑caps and retail fandom; the speaker treats extreme silver targets ($300–$500) as low‑probability tail events.

SilverInflationMonetary Policy

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Key Takeaways

A potential 'currency restart' — which could make current fiat holdings hard to use and force conversions into CBDCs, stablecoins or a 'new dollar' with capital controls — helps explain why central banks have increased gold to record levels (official reserves now ~25% gold vs ~22% U.S. Treasuries) and why gold is being positioned as a preservation asset that can withstand currency events.

Political resolution of the conflict (an MOU) may not meaningfully lower oil because structural supply shortfalls and stronger-than-expected demand could keep prices elevated, and oil remains chiefly driven by producer choices (e.g., Saudi adjustments, rising U.S. output) and single-leader interventions that can rapidly change production — a dynamic that also transmits into inflation and silver prices.

The economics of AI are capex‑intensive and risky: electricity costs (~$60bn) are dwarfed by required capital investment (~$800bn–$1.2trn) and fast chip refresh cycles, which, combined with vendor‑financing practices that can inflate reported revenue and 'other income', mean many providers may struggle to recover costs even as corporate AI rollouts remain slow and multi‑year.

Starlink is currently profitable and subsidizing other SpaceX‑linked ventures, so spinning out or revaluing those subsidized businesses could materially change SpaceX's apparent value — a dynamic amplified by very small floats and strong retail/institutional fandom that has bid valuations up despite fundamentals (SpaceX cited as having a >$4bn net loss).

GEO-POLITICS

Currency Restart — A 'currency restart' need not be a formal default. It could make existing fiat holdings hard or impossible to use, forcing conversion into CBDCs, stablecoins or a 'new dollar' and imposing conversion limits or capital controls that particularly constrain large wealth holders.

“When I say restart the currency, it does not mean default…”—

Gold Reserves — Central banks have raised gold holdings to record levels. The speaker cites official reserves that now contain about 25% gold versus roughly 22% in U.S. Treasuries, reflecting diversification away from dollar/treasury concentration.

“And now we are seeing that because we've got this year just announced by the I think it was the IMF said it recently was it the European ECB ECB…”—

TECHNOLOGY

Starlink Subsidy — Starlink is currently profitable and is being used to subsidize other SpaceX‑linked businesses. Spinning out or revaluing those subsidized ventures could materially change SpaceX's apparent value to shareholders.

“I personally don't think that the what the AI, XAI, and X are going to be around 5 or 10 years from now.”—

AI Rollout Pace — Corporate AI adoption will be slower than hype suggests because small central IT teams cannot rapidly build bespoke automation for thousands of distinct employees. Firms are reskilling, expect multi‑year rollouts, and must manage gaming risks such as agents running continuously and incurring large bills.

“So, it'll be a slower rollout, but of course companies are on this mission now to upgrade their staff to only have staff who are going to be proficient or…”—

ECONOMY

Fed Surprise — Under Powell the Fed largely 'followed the market.' With new leadership (Kevin Warsh) there is uncertainty whether the Fed will keep aligning with market expectations or deliberately surprise markets, and a surprise could trigger violent moves in stocks and precious metals depending on policy direction and language.

“It's difficult to say whether the market is following the Fed or whether the Fed is following the market…”—

Debt and Metals — Rising government debt and persistent inflation (near ~4%) keep real rates near zero, a macro backdrop supportive of gold and silver as hedges. The speaker warns of an eventual debt‑spiral risk and points to central bank reserve shifts into gold as part of this landscape.

“So, if we see inflation being persistent, and I think we will, but if we see inflation being persistent at the higher levels that we're at now, which is, only…”—

MARKETS

Silver Drivers — Silver's price is sensitive to interest‑rate expectations and geopolitical developments that affect oil and inflation. Near‑term rate expectations (e.g., comments from Kevin Warsh) have kept silver subdued, while the Silver Institute projects demand will exceed supply in 2026, implying higher prices may be needed to unlock recycling.

“First of all, silver is a byproduct it's used both for industrial purposes and as a precious metal for savings purposes…”—

Miners Seasonality — June/July results should show significant revenue and EPS increases for profitable precious‑metals miners because metal prices were much lower a year ago. Historically there is a calendar effect (buy before results, sell after), and names like GoGold, McEwen, SSR and Pan American produced the largest EPS and share‑price gains; many miners still trade at low P/E ratios (sub‑10).

“For the time being, and I'm talking about the June results, which will be announced in July and August, those results should show significant increases in the revenue for the…”—

Scenario Modeling — Technical analysis works only some of the time—the speaker estimates ~33%—so it should be combined with fundamentals. Monte Carlo simulations that randomize historical moves and run thousands of trials help produce distributions clustered around long‑term averages for scenario planning.

“After 5 years, the conclusion I gave up because the conclusion I reached was it works about 1/3 of the time, 33% of the time…”—

FORECASTS

Silver Extremes — Technical forecaster Michael Oliver's call that silver could reach $300–$500 this year is treated by the speaker as an unlikely tail outcome—perhaps ~5% (95th‑percentile) rather than a 25–30% probability. Consequently the speaker would not buy long‑dated out‑of‑the‑money calls at those strikes.

“I had Michael Oliver on the show around 3 weeks ago and he said that based on technical indicators he's watching, silver could go to $300 to $500 this year.”—

Introduction

Clive frames silver and gold as macro hedges and previews topics: interest rates, inflation, miners, SpaceX IPO, AI capex, and portfolio implications.

Silver Bull Fully Intact

He argues silver's long‑term bull market remains intact due to near‑zero real rates, industrial demand, recycling constraints, and flight‑to‑tangible assets.

Fed Effect on Precious Metals

Clive says Fed language drives short‑term precious metals moves, but long‑run performance depends on real rates and persistent inflation expectations.

$300 to $500 Silver This Year?

He treats $300–$500 silver this year as a low‑probability tail risk, preferring Monte Carlo scenario thinking and dollar‑cost averaging strategies.

Catalysts Driving Gold

Gold is being driven by mounting government debt, rising money supply, central bank diversification into record gold holdings and loss of confidence risks.

Gold and Silver Miners Mispriced?

He expects June miner results to show big EPS gains, highlights miners trading at low P/Es, and sees potential for mining stocks to re‑rate.

SpaceX IPO Mania

Clive warns SpaceX's small float and strong investor fandom can support lofty valuations despite recent losses, comparing it to Tesla’s fan‑premium dynamic.

Markets and the End of Iran War

He argues the Iran war’s end could have ambiguous effects: oil supply control, structural supply tightness, and geopolitical politics matter more than demand alone.

Top 4 Silver Stocks

From his calendar screen, his top four silver miners are GoGold Resources (GGD), McEwen Mining (MUX), SSR Mining (SSRM), and Pan American Silver (PAAS).

Will Energy Still Be a Winner?

On energy, he emphasizes producer control over output and politics, saying major producers will largely determine oil prices rather than simple supply scarcity.

Where is Clive Seeing Value in Markets?

Clive prefers small‑ and mid‑caps, Asian firms, and large‑employer companies that can benefit from automation; he also promotes a sizeable gold allocation and his kids’ books.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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