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The Next 6 Months Will Make History.

Markets have repriced toward a higher probability of Fed hikes in 2026 as core inflation remains above target and oil prices have jumped, a mix that raises recession risk through tighter credit conditions. That dynamic creates a potential near-term equity rally window—particularly for AI-related names—while eventually amplifying housing affordability problems and consumer strain. The presenter highlights strong 2025 performance driven by many modest winners and notes portfolio exposure to nuclear, energy-infrastructure and base-metals to capture rising electricity and hardware demand from AI deployments.

Monetary PolicyInflationEquitiesArtificial IntelligenceCommoditiesEnergy Security

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Key Takeaways

Bond markets, a prolonged core PCE above 2%, and a recent jump in oil have repriced odds toward Fed rate hikes in 2026 rather than cuts, materially raising recession risk by increasing borrowing costs and exposing underlying labor-market weakness.

There may be a near-term equity rally — particularly in AI-related names — because markets historically can run for many months after the Fed begins tightening, and the portfolio’s deliberate exposure to AI-beneficiary sectors (nuclear power, energy-infrastructure for data centers, and base metals) is positioned to capture that demand-led upside.

The presenter’s strategy produced roughly a 50% return in 2025 by delivering 129 winners (avg +16.3%) and 97 losers (avg -4.6%) with assumed ~3% position weights, but that performance could be threatened if the anticipated 2026 tightening and higher rates bite into economic growth.

INVESTMENT-PERFORMANCE

2025 Performance — The presenter reports 129 winning positions averaging a 16.3% gain and 97 losers averaging a 4.6% loss; assuming ~3% position weights, that mix is said to have produced roughly a 50% annual return for 2025.

“Our investment selection process captured 129 profitable positions in 2025 with an average gain of 16.3%…”—

MARKET-OUTLOOK

Housing Stress — The presenter views a Fed hike by end-2026 as 'increasingly likely,' which would lift mortgage rates and worsen housing affordability, adding strain to households already showing stretched finances.

“We think this makes it increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will indeed be raising their interest rate by the end of 2026…”—

MONETARY-POLICY

Hike Repricing — Bond-market pricing now favors Fed rate hikes in 2026 over cuts; core PCE has remained above the 2% target and a recent oil price jump may not yet be reflected in official inflation measures. Because the Fed tends to tighten when inflation rises, higher policy rates — which raise borrowing costs and compress lending — materially increase recession risk, a risk amplified if weak job-quality metrics are overlooked.

“These two lines crossing one another represents the single most dangerous shift in monetary policy that we've seen in years…”—

SECTORS

Energy & Metals — The portfolio targets three AI-beneficiary areas: nuclear power firms as stable energy sources, energy-infrastructure companies expanding capacity for data centers, and base-metals producers supplying materials for hardware construction.

“Right now we have roughly 50% of our portfolio at Bravos Research positioned to take advantage of this in three different sectors that are direct beneficiaries of AI…”—

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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