Cyrus Janssen: How the Iran Conflict is Changing the World

Cyrus Janssen says the U.S. objective in Iran shifted from regime change—which he says failed—to removing enriched uranium, with no uranium having left the country at the time of the discussion. He argues that sending 8,000 U.S. troops into Iran would expose them to ballistic-missile and drone risks, and predicts Trump may eventually declare victory and withdraw, though he presents that as an expectation rather than a settled outcome.

Janssen contrasts surging U.S. costs with stable consumer costs in China: he says U.S. gas, diesel, and food costs had risen while Chinese consumers’ food, oil, and gas costs had not changed. He also says China drew on its strategic oil reserve of more than 1.4 billion barrels during the crisis, covering over a year of oil needs and leaving more supply available to other countries.

Janssen describes pressure on U.S. households and food supply chains from both higher fuel and grocery costs: diesel costs had doubled, disrupting farming and transport, and he cites record farm bankruptcies. He also says ground beef, chicken, eggs, and milk rose 20% to 40% over the prior couple of years, weighing especially on middle- and lower-income consumers.

Janssen says housing affordability has become a problem for young people across the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Europe, while China deliberately sought to deflate its property bubble and discourage speculation. He cites Chinese homeownership of about 90% and argues that a sharp decline in U.S. home values would be politically difficult because many Americans’ financial success is tied to their homes.