Bitcoin's Mythical Supercycle Is Finally Starting

Moss argues Bitcoin may be entering a supercycle rather than repeating the standard four-year pattern, citing chart, indicator, and on-chain similarities to 2015, as well as recent divergence from the S&P 500. In this framework, volatility would be expressed through roughly 30%-50% drawdowns instead of the historical 78%-85% crashes, but he presents the supercycle as conditional rather than confirmed.

Moss interprets Bitcoin’s roughly 55% decline as a midcycle correction and estimates about 90% confidence that a bottom is near $58,000, while acknowledging a 5%-10% chance of further downside. He attributes the selloff partly to investors front-running proposed 125%-150% China tariffs, with Bitcoin’s leverage amplifying the broader market decline through cascading losses.

The episode contrasts Bitcoin’s historical boom-and-bust record—including a prior 2,000% cycle gain and a fall from approximately $1,100 to $150—with Moss’s argument that Bitcoin differs from tulip mania because it has recovered from previous selloffs. He also notes that Bitcoin’s current performance looks less bullish when measured against gold than when measured in dollars.

Moss says halving-driven supply shocks are becoming mechanically weaker, declining from 12.5% in 2012 to 0.8% in 2024, while ETF purchases have exceeded newly mined supply by 2.53 times. He therefore places greater emphasis on persistent institutional, corporate treasury, and ETF demand, which he says could support a five-to-eight-year cycle.

Moss identifies global liquidity and investor psychology—not a fixed calendar—as the primary forces behind Bitcoin’s price, citing an approximately three-month lag between global M2 and Bitcoin and a recent bullish moving-average signal. He says the pullback reflected a slowdown in liquidity and a rotation toward AI assets viewed as less risky because they have revenue and intellectual property.