PodcastThe Wolf Of All StreetsMatt Cole

Bitcoin DROPS As Treasury’s $6 BILLION Bond Rescue BACKFIRES | Matt Cole

The discussion examines shifting crypto policy expectations, including the uncertain Clarity Act outlook, Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 dividend, and Nasdaq Ventures’ planned $100 million investment in Kraken’s parent company. Matt Cole argues that Treasury buybacks may signal financial stress without solving it, as debt dynamics increasingly shape financial conditions relative to incremental Federal Reserve rate changes. The market discussion spans custody risks, leverage, distressed Bitcoin treasury companies, and Bitcoin’s technical retracement, while forecasts range from higher Treasury yields and a weaker dollar to a potential Bitcoin bull market, with significant downside risks if yields reach 7% or Bitcoin falls to $40,000.

BitcoinGovernment DebtCrypto RegulationInterest RatesMarket VolatilityRisk Management

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Key Takeaways

Matt Cole argues that Treasury buybacks could backfire if they are too small to materially affect roughly $40 trillion of debt: purchases rising from $2 billion to $6 billion may signal that officials recognize a problem without having the capacity to solve it. He sees Treasury actions and the debt crisis as increasingly important for financial conditions than incremental Federal Reserve rate changes, citing Treasury yields rising after an attempted rate cut.

Cole expects the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 5%–6% before larger intervention, while Luke Gromen believes it could reach 7%; Cole also says yields could keep rising as the debt crisis worsens. Cole considers a Bitcoin new all-time low at a 7% 10-year yield possible but unlikely, and says a roughly 30% DXY decline over three to five years could create a major dollar bear market and stronger Bitcoin bull run.

The speakers frame Bitcoin leverage as a trade-off between capturing a potentially strong macro-driven upside and being forced out by a downside move. That risk is particularly relevant for Bitcoin treasury companies with unfavorable debt terms, which Matt Cole says could be forced to sell if Bitcoin fell to $40,000, although he and the host consider that outcome unlikely.

The episode links growing custody concerns to both technology risk and market flows: the speaker expects future Bitcoin custody to become more resistant to AI-enabled attacks but says current systems were not designed for the pace of AI innovation. The host says hacks, including the Coldcard hack and recurring Treasure data breaches, may be contributing to inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and other securities viewed as Bitcoin exposure.

GEO-POLITICS

Clarity Act Outlook — The host says expectations for the Clarity Act have shifted toward failure. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong argues that crypto can still benefit regardless of the vote’s outcome.

“But you know, crypto wins regardless of Clarity Act vote, Coinbase's Armstrong says…”—

TECHNOLOGY

AI Custody Risk — The speaker expects future Bitcoin custody solutions to become more resistant to AI-enabled attacks, but says current technology was not designed for AI’s pace of innovation. He remains a believer in self-custody while saying users should reassess how much Bitcoin they hold that way.

“And I think on the back end, I think there will be kind of a return is my guess of good custody solutions, self- custody that that is more AI…”—

ECONOMY

Treasury Buyback Scale — Matt Cole argues that Treasury buybacks can backfire when they function mainly as signaling rather than meaningful intervention. Markets may interpret a small purchase as evidence that Treasury recognizes a problem but lacks the size to solve it. He notes that buybacks rose from $2 billion to $6 billion against roughly $40 trillion of debt.

“But what happens in practice most of the time and I think should be the base case and a learning here is that the market does the opposite…”—

MARKETS

Memecoin Liquidity — The host describes the Hunter Biden laptop memecoin as a severe liquidity failure. Its fully diluted valuation reached $144 billion despite a $48,000 liquidity pool, and reports said some buyers’ $200,000 purchases were worth less than $200 within hours.

“A fully diluted valuation with a $48,000 liquidity pool, meaning that a few people got really excited and bought the hell out of it and so did bots…”—

Bitcoin Leverage — One speaker argues that the current environment may justify taking more risk because Bitcoin could experience the strongest macro backdrop in its history. The speakers warn that leverage can turn a downside move into a forced loss, creating a trade-off between missing upside and being wiped out by excessive leverage.

“I agree. I think now is the time to load up on risk, but also be cognizant of leverage that can wipe you out…”—

MetaPlanet Trust — Matt Cole says MetaPlanet’s Bitcoin treasury strategy has outperformed Bitcoin by roughly eight times since 2024, but argues that this does not excuse shareholder-unfriendly compensation. He says the company must rebuild investor trust after failing to correct its incentive structure proactively.

“And I think they've also performed really well since they started their Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2024, they've outperformed Bitcoin by like 8x…”—

FORECASTS

Treasury Yield Intervention — Cole expects the U.S. 10-year yield could break into the 5%–6% range before Treasury officials intervene with larger purchases, while noting Luke Gromen’s view that yields could reach 7%. He also says yields could continue rising as the debt crisis worsens.

“What the post I laid out in late August called for was the 10-year and I used the 10-year over the 30-year because it has more of a long-term history…”—

Dollar Decline — Cole predicts that the U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY Index, could fall about 30% over the next three to five years. He says this could create the largest dollar bear market in Bitcoin’s history and contribute to a stronger Bitcoin bull run.

“But ultimately the cost will be the dollar and I think the dollar over the next 3 to 5 years as measured at least by like the DXY index I…”—

Bitcoin Millions — Matt Cole says Bitcoin could ultimately reach millions, framing the forecast as a consequence of his view that fiat currencies are worthless rather than as a near-term price target.

“Obviously though it's been a bare market and we're playing for Bitcoin to go to millions ultimately, you know, infinity because fiat currencies are worthless.”—

Hunter Biden Memecoin Collapse

The host opens by criticizing the Hunter Biden laptop memecoin’s extreme surge and collapse, warning that retail investors were harmed by thin liquidity and speculative trading.

Treasury Buyback Backfires

Matt Cole argues that the Treasury’s $6 billion buyback announcement is too small to address a $40 trillion debt market and may instead signal that officials recognize a deeper problem.

Fiscal Dominance And Dollar Risk

Cole says debt dynamics and fiscal policy increasingly matter more than incremental Fed rate changes, forecasting substantial dollar weakness as officials prioritize growth and financial stability.

Strive’s Bitcoin Treasury

Cole describes Strive’s growth to more than 24,000 Bitcoin and explains why its SATA preferred security has attracted investors through high yields and stronger credit protections.

Bitcoin Downside Scenarios

The speakers discuss the possibility of 10-year yields reaching 7% and Bitcoin falling toward $40,000, while Cole maintains that such a scenario is possible but not his base case.

Treasury Company Governance

Cole criticizes poorly structured Bitcoin treasury companies, discusses MetaPlanet’s executive dilution controversy, and emphasizes transparent compensation and shareholder alignment.

Custody Risks And Security

The conversation turns to hardware-wallet breaches and phishing, with Cole arguing that self-custody remains valuable but is more difficult and requires constant monitoring in an AI-enabled threat environment.

Home Gym Detour

The host and Cole briefly discuss Cole’s home gym, fitness routines, and the practical benefits of making exercise accessible while managing demanding executive responsibilities.

Trump’s $5,000 Dividend

The host questions Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 citizen dividend, arguing that the proposal lacks funding, may be unlawful, and reflects broader political promises that reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal.

Bitcoin Retracement Outlook

The host interprets Bitcoin’s decline as a healthy technical retracement toward major moving averages, while prediction markets show limited confidence in a return above $100,000 soon.

NASDAQ Invests In Kraken

The episode closes with NASDAQ Ventures’ planned $100 million investment in Kraken’s parent company, highlighting accelerating institutional interest in tokenized equities and always-on markets.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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