PodcastCapital CosmBill Holter

🔴 Are They Planning MORE THAN 1 Gold Resets?? | Bill Holter & David Morgan

Bill Holter and David Morgan debate how declining confidence in the dollar, debt-market limits, and unresolved bad debt could shape interest rates and the case for a gold revaluation. They differ on whether bad debts should be cleared before revaluation, while discussing how a higher official gold price might expand collateral and counter deflation. Market discussion ranges from falling precious metals and silver positioning to tech weakness and unusual asset correlations; possible revaluation levels and gold’s relative purchasing power are presented as scenarios, not predictions.

GoldPrecious MetalsGovernment Debt

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Key Takeaways

Bill Holter attributes rising rates to declining confidence in U.S. paper, including BRICS efforts to develop an alternative currency and settlement process; David Morgan likewise points to the dollar’s fall from roughly 78% to 58% of global commerce and says weaker confidence could pressure rates upward. Morgan argues that debt-market tolerance, rather than the Fed’s preferred policy alone, constrains borrowing costs and leaves the Fed little room to lower rates.

David Morgan argues that higher rates could trigger deflation as existing bonds sell at steep discounts—for example, a $1,000 bond yielding 2% might need to fall to about $600 to yield 10%—and force credit-dependent portfolios to sell assets for liquidity. Both speakers identify excess credit and unresolved bad debt as core problems; Morgan favors letting unserviceable companies and debts fail, and argues this cleanup should precede a gold revaluation.

The speakers discuss a possible gold revaluation as a way to create collateral for more borrowing and credit, potentially countering deflation, but differ on the surrounding path: Holter says an initial CBDC or Treasury-backed stablecoin reset would still be fiat and believes Judy Shelton may be involved in a later gold revaluation. Their scenarios range from $10,000 gold covering about $2.5 trillion to a revaluation potentially falling from roughly $160,000 to around $30,000 if bad credit is cleared first; these are scenarios, not predictions.

The host reported September PPI inflation of 6.3% year over year, above the 5.5% expectation, and CPI of 3.7%, while gold and silver fell, with gold near $4,000 support and silver at $56. Separately, the host cited WTI at $98 amid signs of possible further bombing in Iran and said metals have tended to fall when war escalates; the host also described gold and silver as decoupled from oil, making geopolitical risk a possible near-term metals headwind rather than an established explanation for the price moves.

GEO-POLITICS

BRICS Settlement — Bill Holter argues that rising rates reflect declining confidence in U.S. paper, not a strong economy. He points to BRICS efforts to develop an alternative currency and settlement process.

“But the reason rates are going higher is not because of super strong economy. It's because of lack of confidence in the paper itself. And you can see that…”—

ECONOMY

Debt-Market Limits — David Morgan argues that debt markets’ tolerance for borrowing costs—not simply the Fed’s preferred policy—is the central constraint. He says the Fed has little room to lower rates and that markets have largely ignored its wishes for six months or more.

“that's the bigger big picture central issue is no longer what the fed wants to do it's whether the debt markets will tolerate how much paying households, businesses and governments…”—

Dollar Confidence — David Morgan says the U.S. dollar’s share of global commerce has fallen from roughly 78% a couple of decades ago to about 58% today, but cautions that this does not mean the dollar is ending. He argues that declining confidence in the dollar would put upward pressure on interest rates.

“We all know that. But the amount of commerce done on the U.S…”—

Rate-Driven Deflation — David Morgan argues that rising interest rates could trigger deflation by forcing existing bonds to sell at steep discounts. A $1,000 bond yielding 2% might need to fall to about $600 to yield 10%. He links those discounts to credit-dependent portfolios selling assets to obtain liquidity.

“Well, we could hit a deflationary period. I know most people don't believe it or think about it, but you could…”—

MARKETS

Inflation And Metals — The host reports September PPI inflation of 6.3% year over year, above the 5.5% expectation, and a 3.7% CPI reading the prior day. Gold and silver continued falling; the host links the decline to the reports in the question. Gold was near $4,000 support, while silver fell below $60 to $56.

“And PPI has come out today at 6.3% annually in September. The biggest gain since 2022. They were expecting 5.5%…”—

Silver Consolidation — David Morgan says silver’s January move was a 70% rise in one month, which he did not consider the ultimate high. He believes the market is still consolidating those gains. The host describes silver as having broken out of a descending wedge, with former resistance acting as support.

“The January move was really substantial, not the ultimate high in my view, but nonetheless, certainly accelerated beyond anyone's expectations. A 70% move in one month's rather phenomenal…”—

Silver Positioning — David Morgan says commercial silver traders were net short approximately 40,000 contracts in the latest published report. He says another roughly 4,500 contracts could bring the market near what he calls the commercials’ usual maximum pain point, after which they may buy back and cover shorts.

“So if we go back to the last published report, we were net short on the commercial side, approximately 40,000 contracts.”—

FORECASTS

Revaluation Scenarios — The speakers discuss possible gold revaluations, including competing U.S. and Chinese valuations, and debate the level needed to cover debt. One speaker says $10,000 would cover about $2.5 trillion; another suggests clearing bad credit first could reduce a required revaluation from roughly $160,000 to a figure such as $30,000. These are scenarios, not predictions.

“As far as revaluing gold, of course, you could see more than one revaluation. You could have competitive revaluations. You could have the U.S…”—

PPI, Rates, And Metals

The guests connect hotter inflation readings and rising yields to limited Fed flexibility, declining confidence in the dollar, and pressure on precious metals.

Bond Yields And Dollar Trust

Bill suggests bond buying may reflect fears of tighter policy and discusses frozen Russian Treasuries, arguing that today’s rate pressures signal weak confidence rather than economic strength.

Silver Positioning And Support

Dave describes consolidation after silver’s sharp run, while Bill and Dave weigh commercial short positions, physical demand, and chart levels as clues to a possible near-term low.

War Risks And Metal Charts

The guests debate whether geopolitical escalation should weaken metals, examine silver’s technical support, and question market correlations that appear to be breaking down.

Gold’s Purchasing Power

Bill and Dave argue that gold has outperformed housing and stocks over long periods, while housing and wages look weaker when measured against gold.

Real Money And Market Returns

The guests return to savings in precious metals and compare broad-market performance with gold, arguing that rising nominal prices can hide losses in purchasing power.

Tech Weakness And Deflation

As major technology stocks weaken, Dave explains how high rates and credit stress can trigger deflation, while suggesting metals may eventually lead a market recovery.

Judy Shelton And Gold Revaluation

Bill sees Judy Shelton’s Treasury role as preparation for a gold revaluation, while the guests consider whether a reset could restore confidence and how disruption might exceed policymakers’ control.

Bad Debt And Multiple Resets

Dave argues bad debts should be cleared before revaluation, while Bill counters that they have gone unresolved for decades and says competitive gold revaluations could create collateral and reflation.

Gold Confiscation And Closing

Bill doubts broad confiscation would work and discusses possible legal distinctions for U.S. coins; the guests restate their views on sound money and share where to find their work.

CFTC Oil Trade Retraction

Bill calls the CFTC’s withdrawal of its concerns about questionable oil trades suspicious, and Dave agrees before the host closes the episode.

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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