Daily Report: Friday, May 29
The day's loudest macro tension was between structurally bullish supply and technology narratives and increasingly defensive valuation warnings. Mark Moss presented ARMA as a proposed $1.17 trillion, budget-neutral mechanism for the U.S. Treasury to acquire 1,000,000 BTC over five years, funded by revaluing 8,133 metric tons of Treasury gold from its $42.22-per-ounce statutory value toward roughly $4,521. Ted Oakley of WTFinance took the opposite risk posture: he said the CAPE is approaching 40, called the 40-year bond bull over, and described the AI boom as a black-fiber-style overbuild likely to produce a shakeout over two to three years. AI remained the central cross-asset theme, but the podcasts emphasized concentration, monetization, and policy risk rather than simply higher earnings. Forward Guidance highlighted extreme semiconductor call positioning, muted index volatility, and record U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve draws, while All-In cited an accidental $500 million monthly token bill, roughly 25% automation of work hours in Goldman Sachs CEO commentary, and a potential U.S./EU-versus-China split over open-weight models. Commodity Culture supplied a more constructive cyclical case: long-term uranium contracts have climbed into the low $90s while Kazakhstan provides roughly 40% of output and China builds about 10 reactors per year.
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Read the Full ReportThe bullish side was strongest in specific secular themes: Commodity Culture described uranium fundamentals as stronger than ever, with roughly 70 reactors under construction and about 100 proposed, while Mark Moss portrayed 1,000,000 BTC of potential Treasury demand as a reserve-regime shift. The defensive side was equally concrete, with Ted Oakley citing a CAPE near 40 and a two-to-three-year AI shakeout risk, and Forward Guidance warning that extreme semiconductor call positioning and cheap S&P puts could amplify a disorderly unwind.
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