Saturday, October 10 — Recap · 4 Episodes

Near-term yield calls diverge, while fiscal strain and positioning keep bond-market risks in focus.

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® says RAA expects yields to trend down over the next couple of years, while guest Chris Wayland sees 7%–8% as possible over the long term. Gareth Soloway sees topping tails pointing to near-term downside and yields potentially reaching 5% or below; FoFty warns that heavy long-bond call positioning could amplify a yield rise if trades unwind. All-In Podcast speakers warn that French austerity could push yields to 5.5%–6% and forecast Western funding pressures, including potentially higher U.S. yields.

Oil faces competing supply, geopolitical and technical forces, leaving direction uncertain.

FoFty says 71% of Gulf of Mexico oil production and nearly 60% of gas production are offline, while noting WTI could still move toward the bottom of its falling wedge. Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® says oil near $80 could ease inflation and yields, potentially benefiting rate-sensitive sectors. Gareth Soloway identifies a possible rapid breakdown below oil support near $88.75–$88.85, with about $78 as a longer-term target if yields fall.

Index strength masks uneven breadth, with valuation concerns offset by conditional upside calls.

Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® says cap-weighted indexes regained highs after a 10% correction, but the equal-weighted picture differed and rotation toward value and international stocks was still early. FoFty describes an S&P 500 propped up by a small group of AI-linked names while many other stocks are under pressure. Gareth Soloway says a daily close above 7,818 would signal a possible move toward 8,000; Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money® also relays Lance Roberts’s estimate of roughly -2% to 2% real stock returns over the next decade.

AI’s commercial promise is drawing scrutiny as revenue misses and adoption risks test investor confidence.

FoFty says OpenAI revenue of roughly $50 billion fell short of the $70 billion expected, and warns AI-linked stocks and ETFs could also weaken, while acknowledging uncertainty about whether this marks a market top. All-In Podcast speakers argue Silicon Valley should demonstrate practical AI benefits over the next 12 to 18 months, warning that self-inflicted setbacks could slow progress. They also describe AI agents as potentially deflationary and say rapid gains in math and coding are easier to verify than advances in physical sciences.

Gold and silver remain technically constructive only while their respective support levels hold.

Gareth Soloway favors near-term gold upside while its trend line holds, but says a break below it would turn his view bearish. For silver, he favors upside above technical support and identifies 55, then potentially 50, as downside levels if price closes below support.