Monday, October 5 — Recap · 6 Episodes

Rising yields reflect competing views on growth, Fed policy, inflation risk, and Treasury demand.

Pento sees the 10-year yield moving closer to 6% than 5%, while Cowen expects a possible top before mid-November after a move to 5.3%–5.6%; Soloway says a confirmed close above his cited yield level could point to 5.5%. Howell attributes higher yields to economic strength, while the Odd Lots guest says reduced Treasury safety and greater stock-bond co-movement have lifted yields; a host cited the 30-year at 5.592%, its highest since 2002.

Deficit spending may sustain liquidity, even as debt and financing risks threaten confidence.

Pento argues the $2 trillion deficit, $1.2 trillion in interest payments, and limited Treasury support leave little room to maneuver; he warns recession could push the deficit near $6 trillion. Howell says fiscal retrenchment is unlikely, describes spending as “Treasury QE,” and expects deficits above $2 trillion to be monetized, while also noting that rate increases add more than $100 billion in annual G7 interest expense per 25 basis points.

Pento sees debt-funded AI growth and stretched asset values as vulnerable to tighter credit.

Pento says debt-fueled AI spending accounts for 50% of GDP growth and 80% of earnings growth, leaving the economy exposed if higher rates and wider credit spreads choke off financing. He also points to record-high home-price-to-income ratios and equity market capitalization at 235% of GDP versus a roughly 90% historical average, and warns that stocks and long-duration bonds could fall together in a credit-bubble unwind.

Gold and silver views hinge on monetary support, economic conditions, and technical support levels.

Pento expects gold and silver could reach record highs after a recession becomes evident, with a stronger rally if the Fed shifts toward cuts. Soloway remains a long-term gold bull but warns a break below trend-line support around 4,100 and then 3,950 could expose 3,500; he sees silver support at $55–$54, then just under $50, and says stronger growth may favor silver while weakness may favor gold. On The Wolf Of All Streets, Howell sees gold dips as potential adds amid expected monetization, while other speakers warn a sharp shock could pull gold lower alongside risk assets.

NEAR’s new ETF and expanding AI narrative offer potential catalysts, alongside a revenue-funded buyback model.

Bankless reports the Bitwise NEAR ETF drew about $50 million in its first three days, with more than $10 million in daily inflows cited by a speaker. NEAR Intents has added tokenized-equity swaps and processed more than $32 billion in volume; transaction revenue funds buybacks of NEAR held in a permanent capital vehicle, though tokens are not currently burned. A speaker argues NEAR’s roughly $5 billion market cap looks inexpensive against AI platforms with traction, while saying the AI bull-market connection is central to the thesis.

Howell sees Bitcoin as highly responsive to liquidity, but speakers disagree on its resilience in a selloff.

Howell says lower bond volatility could expand collateral-based liquidity and support Bitcoin, which he argues responds more sharply than gold to liquidity impulses. The Wolf Of All Streets speakers also note Bitcoin rose alongside the dollar over several weeks, but disagree about its performance and downside resilience; one warns a sudden market shock could pull Bitcoin lower with gold, while another says a crash could weaken the debasement-trade case for smaller tokens without necessarily ruling out Bitcoin.

A conditional rally scenario contrasts with Pento’s expectation of a vulnerable, credit-sensitive market.

Soloway says the S&P could reach 8,000 or slightly higher if yields pull back, citing earnings expectations, U.S. market appeal, and economic strength as support despite higher yields. Pento expects to be net short stocks in 2027 and says equities are vulnerable if the credit bubble collapses; he also warns persistent energy costs and possible 2027 rate hikes could weigh on consumers and stocks.