Saturday, September 26 — Recap · 6 Episodes

Geopolitical oil shocks could keep inflation and Treasury yields elevated, pressuring stocks and Bitcoin.

Adam Taggart’s episode said crude could reach $120 if the Iran conflict worsens, while a durable deal could send it toward $70 and lower bond yields. FoFty linked Middle East and Ukraine energy risks to delayed food inflation, while Benjamin Cowen said rising yields and a stronger dollar create a difficult backdrop for Bitcoin. Gareth Soloway instead expects crude to fall toward $80 and the 10-year yield to reach 5.25%-5.27% before retreating.

AI investment is supporting headline growth and indexes while concentrating economic and market risk.

Adam Taggart’s episode said AI data-center construction could add 4% to reported growth even as the rest of the economy contracts slightly, and warned that a 20%-30% capex slowdown could trigger a 20%-25% stock correction. All-In described data-center spending as potentially most or all of real growth in a 5% nominal-growth economy and cited $38 billion in cloud-capacity commitments. Both discussions emphasized narrow leadership and the danger of an abrupt investment reversal.

Bitcoin’s next weekly close near $82,800-$83,000 is viewed as the key test for renewed weakness or bull-market acceptance.

Benjamin Cowen said a weekly close below roughly $82,800-$83,000 would make fourth-quarter weakness his base case, with a possible drop into the high $70,000s. He also said holding above the May high would weaken the bearish case, while historical data points to a potential low 81 days after a midterm-year September rate hike, averaging 29% below the hike level. Gareth Soloway separately sees support near $81,000, with a break exposing $75,500.

Open and smaller AI models are taking volume, while premium systems retain value in complex work.

All-In said open-token usage rose from 20% to 80% in 12 weeks and that open or small models may handle 80%-90% of corporate tasks, while frontier models remain valuable for advanced engineering, math, biology, and life sciences. The episode also described Anthropic and OpenAI as a premium duopoly that may move into higher-value applications as basic token access becomes commoditized. Adam Taggart’s episode warned that cheaper open models could reduce demand for frontier compute and usage fees.

Index resilience is masking broad weakness, leaving markets vulnerable if AI leaders lose momentum.

Adam Taggart’s episode cited declines of 4% in RSP, 5% in financials, 6.5% in small caps, 7% in real estate, and 9% in utilities while a small AI group supported the S&P 500. Gareth Soloway said the index remains bullish above 7,575 and could reach 8,000 by mid-October, but agreed that a relatively small group of large-cap AI companies is carrying the market. He remains long-term bearish despite the near-term strength.

Crypto is moving toward financial infrastructure for agents, private credit, payments, and global capital formation.

The Wolf Of All Streets presented crypto as embedded infrastructure for 24/7 markets, stablecoins, AI data centers, and automated agents. The episode identified private credit as a digitization opportunity because transactions still rely heavily on PDFs, spreadsheets, and email, while smart contracts could standardize settlement. It also argued that Bitcoin could eventually exceed gold’s market value because phone-based access expands its potential user base.

Anthropic’s potential IPO faces valuation, governance, regulatory, and capital-market doubts.

All-In said the reported probability of a 2026 Anthropic IPO fell from 96% to 76%, with a possible delay beyond November. The speakers contrasted a potential $2 trillion valuation with roughly $1 trillion or less and cited regulatory, liability, governance, strategic, and capital needs as reasons investors may discount the offering. They also discussed possible founder super-voting shares despite founders owning about 2% each.