Monday, September 7 — Recap · 4 Episodes

Sanctions are accelerating central-bank gold buying without yet displacing the dollar.

Mark Moss argues that sanctions are pushing countries toward gold as a reserve asset because it is less exposed to foreign freezes, though domestic holdings are less liquid for payments. IMF analysis cited by Moss links major-currency sanctions to roughly a two-percentage-point increase in gold’s reserve share, while the dollar still represents 57% of global foreign-currency reserves. Central-bank buying has averaged about 1,000 tons annually over the past four years, versus 500 tons in the prior decade.

Bitcoin is testing its 50-week average, but Cowen wants sustained closes above it before turning decisively bullish.

Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin closed near $80,360 and its 50-week moving average near $80,361, while an approximately $82,292 high remained below May’s peak. He noted that multiple closes above this average marked bear-market endings in 2015, 2019, and 2023, but said hot inflation or employment data could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure Bitcoin. A roughly 40% rebound from the lows also resembles rallies seen in 2018 and 2022, leaving room for a later decline.

Bankless sees crypto’s next revenue growth coming from applications rather than blockchain infrastructure.

The Bankless guest favored application-layer businesses spanning AI, trading, payments, and on-chain banking, arguing they could eventually generate more than 90% of crypto-sector revenue. Venice’s scenario projected revenue rising from about $107 million to $336 million in 2027, while Etherfi’s card volume grew from roughly $300,000 to $3 million-$4 million daily. The guest emphasized that token upside cases for VVV, Pump, and Etherfi remain scenarios dependent on growth, buybacks, and valuation multiples.

Money laundering is shifting across cash, crypto, trade, and luxury goods as enforcement struggles to keep pace.

The Odd Lots discussion described $100 bills as the backbone of global criminal finance, with about 85% of U.S. currency circulation held in $100 notes, while stablecoins support faster international transfers. Trade-based laundering may move roughly $1 trillion annually, and European VAT carousel fraud was estimated at about €50 billion. The speakers also highlighted roughly $200 billion in annual AML compliance costs and questioned whether the resulting volume of suspicious-activity reports can be effectively processed.