Wednesday, May 20 — Recap · 1 Episode

Stablecoin dominance (~8.5%) is masking Bitcoin’s true market share and could fuel a rapid BTC dominance jump on rotation.

With Bitcoin trading near $91,000 and stablecoins holding roughly 8.5% dominance, excluding stablecoins puts BTC dominance near June 2025 highs — meaning the small stablecoin pool has absorbed capital that could rotate into Bitcoin. Stablecoin dominance is backtesting its breakout while forming higher highs and higher lows, a structurally bullish setup that suppresses altcoin share; combined with Bitcoin’s weekly breakout/pullback pattern (often skipping full 20‑week SMA/21‑week EMA retests), any rotation could produce fast, outsized dominance gains.

Rejection at the 200‑day and prior 21‑week EMA breaches keep meaningful downside risk on the table.

Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200‑day moving average — mirroring 2018 and 2022 cycle pivots — along with historical 21‑week EMA breaches (March/Aug/Oct 2022) and June sweeps below prior February lows, weaken the case for a clean higher‑low recovery. Those technical patterns increase the probability the bear market may still be intact and leave room for a delayed, damage‑driven corrective leg before a sustained new bull phase.