Apr 20 – Apr 26

Markets closed the week with a clear risk‑on tilt driven by a thaw in Middle East tensions and renewed enthusiasm for technology, even as central‑bank uncertainty and mixed macro readouts kept investors cautious. The Nasdaq’s 6.84% weekly gain and fresh records for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 on Thursday, April 23, captured a rebound from worst‑case geopolitical scenarios; yet Treasury yields, commodity swings and a raft of corporate results through Friday and the holiday weekend left important questions about inflation, growth and the Fed’s path to be answered next week.

The dominant, market‑clearing story was the market’s repricing of geopolitical risk. On April 23 headlines of a U.S.‑Iran ceasefire extension and Iran’s declaration of an open Strait of Hormuz were credited with removing a major tail risk. That news coincided with a dramatic leadership shift: technology and communications stocks outperformed across the tape as AI narratives and resilient corporate reports drew money back into growth. The Nasdaq’s rally propelled equity indices higher and helped Asia share in the move — Japan’s Nikkei touched record territory near 60,000 the same day — while Europe rebounded more modestly as it still lags pre‑conflict levels.

Commodities responded to the easing in geopolitical premium. Oil, which had been a key source of stagflationary concern, slid from recent peaks to about $92 per barrel on April 23 and then settled around $82.50 by April 24 and $82.40 on April 25. That roughly $10 swing relieved some near‑term inflation pressure, a dynamic cited as one factor in Singapore’s first policy tightening in four years even as other central banks weigh mixed signals. Gold traded higher alongside occasional safe‑haven flows, rising to about $2,650 an ounce on April 24 and holding nearer $2,720 into the holiday‑shortened session on April 25. Crypto markets remained subdued, with Bitcoin trading sideways above $95,000.

Fixed income and FX told a more nuanced story about policy expectations. Treasury yields oscillated as investors balanced improved risk appetite against sticky inflation readings: the 10‑year traded in a band that eased to roughly 4.24%–4.31% earlier in the week, then was quoted at 4.35% on April 24 and 4.32% on April 25 as volumes thinned. The 2‑year sat near 3.80% on April 23. High‑yield credit gained on the improved risk tone, while the dollar index softened from about 105.20 on April 24 to 104.50 on April 25 as the euro strengthened on ECB signals. Those moves reflected markets discounting somewhat lower tail risks while still braced for fresh data that could re‑anchor rate expectations.

Earnings and macro news provided both support and caution for risk assets. Across the week corporate headlines were mixed: Stanley Black & Decker and Moderna registered notable intraday gains — Stanley up roughly 2.8% to $73.33 and Moderna about 2.5% to $55.08 on April 24 — while Cleveland‑Cliffs posted a Q1 profit beat but traded down as elevated energy costs clouded the steel demand recovery. QXO declined after announcing the TopBuild acquisition as investors parsed deal economics. On the macro front the Philadelphia Fed’s activity index rose to 26.7 — its highest since January 2025 — on April 23, signaling stronger shipments and orders even as employment softened and prices hit eight‑month highs. March retail sales also supported a view of resilient consumer spending. Those mixed data points helped explain why traders remained cautious on the timing and size of rate cuts despite the risk‑on equity move.

Market positioning into the holiday weekend was light and deliberate. Futures on April 25 were essentially flat: S&P 500 contracts around 5,820 and Nasdaq futures near 18,450, reflecting thin volume and measured profit taking after a strong run. Treasury yields edged only a few basis points, and commodities held their recent levels. The interplay between easing geopolitical risk and persistent inflation cues left markets in a conditional risk‑on posture — willing to bid growth assets, but attentive to any reacceleration in prices that would keep the Fed on a tighter path.

What matters next week is straightforward and concentrated: incoming U.S. inflation and activity data and a continuing read on the Middle East. Market attention centers on the advance PCE inflation print and next week’s ISM manufacturing PMI, both of which will be critical for assessing the Fed’s room to pivot. Traders will also parse nonfarm payrolls and flash PMIs, watch for further developments in Iran negotiations, and monitor oil supply dynamics that could reintroduce inflationary pressure. Fed speeches and ECB commentary will be parsed for subtleties on the timing of easing. On the corporate side, ongoing earnings and any deal‑related news — from the construction and materials groups highlighted this week to the broad tech sector that fueled the rally — will drive dispersion.

The week closed with markets signaling a willingness to look through geopolitical risk but not to ignore the inflation backdrop. With the Nasdaq’s outsized weekly gain on April 23, steady Treasury yields around the low‑to‑mid 4s, oil trading back in the low $80s and macro prints looming, investors enter next week positioned for data‑driven volatility rather than a return of the prior directional consensus.