PodcastRaoul Pal JourneyRichard Galvin

Why Crypto Could Be Near A Major Turning Point w/ Richard Galvin | Raoul Pal The Journey Man

The discussion centers on crypto's potential recovery, with Richard Galvin pointing to cyclical volume patterns, possible capital rotation, and established DeFi platforms as areas investors are watching. Speakers also discuss tokenized equities, bot-driven activity, and the potential advantages of crypto rails, while Raoul Pal offers a separate projection for agent payments on Solana. Privacy assets, valuation gaps, and the risks of AI-related crypto round out the investment debate.

Crypto MarketsDeFiTokenization

Preview · 20 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

Richard Galvin says established DeFi services—including decentralized spot exchanges, lending, and perpetual-futures exchanges—have proved robust, become cheaper than traditional counterparts, and scaled. The speakers say rising tokenized-equity volumes and exchange plans to move business on-chain reflect adoption of crypto rails, which can offer 24/7 trading and settlement and capital-usage benefits.

Galvin argues that crypto rails suit bot-driven trading because high-frequency activity makes throughput and transaction costs consequential; he says bots could generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in daily turnover with relatively little capital. Raoul Pal separately says roughly 11 million agents had used Solana payments and forecasts that the figure could grow about 50-fold over the next year.

Galvin contrasts AI businesses that can require tens of billions of dollars in capex with crypto apps that can launch globally in weeks with little capital because the underlying rails are already built. He cites Robinhood’s $40 billion in DEX volume over two months, from roughly zero, as an example of fintech distribution paired with crypto rails.

Galvin says decentralized trading volumes fell about 84%, from roughly $200 billion in May 2021 to $33 billion by the end of 2022, and describes traders’ shift to other assets as part of a typical bottoming cycle. He says crypto volumes may be at or near their lows and crypto may be near a cycle bottom, while acknowledging another decline is possible; he cites a 16-fold volume rise from the prior cycle’s bottom.

A speaker argues that crypto trades at a 50%–70% discount despite expected cyclical recovery, with rising volumes and on-chain assets and agents as potential support. Galvin expects volumes to expand sharply as decentralized trading applications become easier to use, while the speaker also notes that structural changes such as bots and tokenized equities could provide additional support.

GEO-POLITICS

Iranian Assets — Raoul Pal speculates that the recent run in privacy assets may partly reflect the seizure of Iranian assets in Bitcoin. Iranians seeking to stay outside the system could move some holdings into Zcash, he says, but presents this as a possibility, not a confirmed flow.

“My guess is part of the recent run is the seizing of the Iranian assets in Bitcoin…”—

TECHNOLOGY

DeFi Resilience — Richard Galvin argues that decentralized spot exchanges, lending, and perpetual-futures exchanges have proved robust through crypto cycles. They are cheaper than comparable traditional-market services and now scale. He sees these established capabilities as part of the technology financial markets are beginning to adopt.

“We've tested things like decentralized spot exchanges. We've tested things like decentralized lending. We've tested things like decentralized perpetual futures exchanges using native crypto coins and tokens…”—

Tokenized Equities — The speakers say tokenized-equity volumes are rising, with exchanges worldwide planning or beginning to move some business on-chain. Potential benefits include broader access for people unable to trade U.S. equities through services such as Robinhood, 24/7 trading, and advantages in settlement, capital usage, and throughput costs.

“And I think that's the point we're at now where you're starting to see tokenized equities volumes dramatically uptick. you're starting to see traditional exchanges…”—

Bot Trading — Galvin says bot functionality is emerging alongside applications such as Robinhood and Aerodrome. People with relatively small amounts of capital could generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in daily turnover, he says. Crypto rails suit machine-driven trading because high-frequency activity makes throughput and transaction costs consequential.

“I think that's these volumes explode right like that's not just you know four or 5 thousand dollars here that's people with relatively small amounts of small amounts of capital…”—

ECONOMY

Rates And Liquidity — Raoul Pal argues that the next 100 basis points in rates are likely to be lower, citing a large deflationary force and a weaker dollar. He says that combination would provide a favorable backdrop for liquidity to flow.

“So, you're getting to the point where they have to do something about rates…”—

MARKETS

Crypto Reset — Galvin says crypto assets without a clear connection to AI have struggled to keep pace with other assets. He sees the reset as creating potentially good entry points for investors who believe crypto will persist.

“Like a lot of assets that don't really have a clear connection to AI. We've sort of struggled to catch up and sort of keep up with everything else…”—

Volume Cycle — Galvin uses decentralized trading volumes as a crypto-cycle barometer. They peaked around $200 billion in May 2021, then fell about 84% to roughly $33 billion by the end of 2022.

“I think the barometer we like to follow is you know one of the core attributes of crypto is clearly trading and decentralized trading and looking a lot at sort…”—

Volume Bottom — Galvin describes traders losing interest in crypto and turning to other assets, such as quantum-computing stocks, as part of a typical bottoming cycle. He says they think they have gone through that cycle, and crypto volumes may be at or near their lows if crypto continues to exist.

“People lose interest and suddenly crypto traders start trading quantum computing stocks or whatever it may be, realize that's probably not their cup of tea…”—

FORECASTS

Outperformance Signal — Galvin interprets the Nasdaq-to-Bitcoin comparison reaching two standard deviations oversold as a signal that crypto could outperform going forward. He also argues that even a small reallocation from the much larger U.S. Treasury market to other asset classes could produce substantial risk-asset inflows.

“And given the relative quantum sizes between, you know, US treasury markets versus any other asset class, again, you only need a very small number of people to reallocate from…”—

DEX Usability — Galvin says decentralized crypto trading applications have become easier to use than centralized alternatives, describing the change as a potential usability crossover. He expects volumes to expand sharply from here.

“And I think that's what we're starting to see around decentralized trading applications in crypto that we've gone from that period where it becomes a much clunkier, harder technology to…”—

Is the Crypto Bottom Finally In?

Pal frames the market downturn as a question of time horizon and introduces Galvin, who sees crypto as potentially near an attractive entry point after a broad reset.

Richard Galvin on the State of Crypto Markets

Galvin says assets without a clear AI connection have lagged and argues the reset creates opportunities for investors who remain convinced crypto will persist.

Why Crypto Trading Volumes Signal a Cycle Bottom

Galvin tracks decentralized trading volumes through prior cycles, noting a large decline from the 2025 peak and a recent uptick that he reads as a possible cyclical low.

The Biggest Edge in Crypto: Patience

Both speakers say crypto rewards patience, with Galvin emphasizing that dramatic tops and fearful bottoms shake investors out and that keeping a clear head is a major edge.

Why Wall Street Is Moving On-Chain

Galvin argues crypto rails have survived harsh market cycles and now offer robust, low-cost trading and lending; traditional financial firms are beginning to bring assets on-chain.

Tokenized Stocks Could Transform Global Markets

The speakers say tokenized U.S. equities could widen access for people abroad, enable around-the-clock trading, and improve settlement, capital efficiency, and market reach.

AI Agents Could Explode Crypto Trading Volumes

Galvin says coding tools and accessible trading bots can bring new participants and turnover to crypto, while Pal expects agent-driven activity to expand substantially.

Why AI and Crypto Are a Perfect Match

They argue crypto’s speed and low costs suit machine-driven markets; Galvin sees rising volume as a comparatively straightforward bet, while Pal highlights the technology’s rapid adoption.

The “Easy Bet” in Crypto Right Now

Galvin favors established crypto platforms and leaders as a relatively direct way to benefit from rising activity, while viewing AI-linked opportunities as more speculative.

Where the Biggest Crypto Opportunities Are

Galvin sees potential in DeFi, AI-related crypto, and Bitcoin, while Pal describes a macro backdrop of Treasury financing, weaker-dollar policy, and possible rate cuts that could support liquidity.

Bessent, Liquidity, and the Macro Setup for Bitcoin

Pal and Galvin suggest crypto may outperform technology stocks because crypto remains discounted while some tech valuations already reflect strong expectations; they also discuss software’s resilience amid AI.

Why Crypto Could Outperform Tech Stocks

Galvin recalls privacy as an early investment thesis and sees Zcash carrying forward the case for a scarce, privacy-preserving asset as surveillance concerns grow.

Zcash, Privacy Coins, and the New Crypto Narrative

Galvin says Zcash’s privacy features and potential quantum resilience support its appeal, and argues that renewed decentralized liquidity has reduced the risks created by centralized exchange delistings.

Hyperliquid and the Rise of Decentralized Trading

Galvin argues decentralized trading is a natural crypto use case, with platforms increasingly matching or beating centralized services through easier access and always-on markets.

Why DeFi Yields Remain So Attractive

Galvin explains that crypto’s retail-heavy market structure can leave relatively little capital available to traders, supporting attractive yields for users who supply liquidity.

Robinhood and the Next Wave of Crypto Adoption

The speakers attribute Robinhood’s crypto growth to its marketing and distribution strengths combined with crypto rails, and say better user experiences can bring new audiences onto platforms.

Why Crypto Tokenomics Still Need to Change

Galvin says DeFi protocols can place tokens at the center of incentives, but crypto needs better launch and listing practices so tokens do not peak immediately and leave founders and buyers worse off.

Crypto VC: Where the Opportunities Are Now

Galvin says venture valuations are adjusting and opportunities remain in areas such as lending, trading, and stablecoins; successful teams need strong products, execution, and distribution.

How Much Time Is Left to Buy Crypto?

Galvin advises against trying to time the crypto cycle precisely, arguing that even with another drawdown, potential volume growth leaves substantial upside over a longer horizon.

Why DeFi Could Be Massively Undervalued

Galvin says his funds are heavily weighted toward DeFi applications, which he views as undervalued relative to their share of crypto revenues and better positioned than scarce block-space narratives.

Related Episodes

Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

Our Commentary · Request Removal