The Housing Crash Worse Than 2008 Is Already Here | Melody Wright

Municipal- and state-level policy choices are already creating localized housing and fiscal stress—e.g., Boston faces double‑digit property‑tax increases and New York's rent‑stabilization freeze (plus pre‑2019 caps) has sidelined perhaps tens of thousands of units—and institutional landlords have been net sellers where properties became uncashflowable, with Congress constraining some positions and expectations of near‑term state hardship funds or direct home purchases to stem homeowner distress.

Homebuilders are using large upfront concessions (LAR reports roughly 13% average incentives such as permanent rate buydowns and closing‑cost coverage) and price promotions that have produced situations where new‑home prices are often below existing‑home prices, even as builders carry high months‑of‑supply and lobby for legislative relief to avoid sharp share‑price drops.

Fieldwork finds structural oversupply—not a nationwide shortage—driven by heavy new construction in the West and Sun Belt, but the AI/data‑center boom is producing intense, localized distortions (e.g., ~25,000 construction workers at one New Albany tech park) even as many planned data‑center projects are being cancelled or not started due to insufficient local power and water, which risks stranding investment and pressuring nearby real estate markets.

Borrower stress looks elevated: Fannie Mae debt‑to‑income metrics are reported around 2008 levels, private credit is described as 'the subprime of this cycle,' and nonseasonal mortgage delinquencies have risen and are spreading from FHA into agency prime books—constraints in the securitization market limit policymakers' ability to reshuffle loans, so the guest expects delinquencies and distressed sales to rise toward year‑end.