PodcastWTFinanceJosef Schachter

The Energy Supercycle Has Just Started - Will Continue to 2030 with Josef Schachter

The episode delves into the escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has led to significant disruptions in oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. As global oil demand continues to rise, particularly from emerging markets, the geopolitical landscape is shifting, with countries like Canada and Russia poised to benefit. The discussion also highlights the potential for future price spikes and the importance of resource investments in the coming commodity cycle.

Energy MarketsGeopolitical RiskCommoditiesOilEmerging MarketsMarket Volatility

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Key Takeaways

The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has drastically reduced oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, dropping from 20 million barrels per day to as low as 2-3 million, creating unprecedented disruptions in global oil markets.

Emerging markets are driving a strong increase in global oil demand, which now stands at about 106 million barrels per day, despite a slowdown in demand from OECD countries.

While Brent crude prices have surged above $100 due to supply disruptions, forecasts for late 2026 indicate a significant drop in prices, suggesting caution for investors in energy stocks.

Russia has significantly benefited from the current surge in oil prices, receiving about $80-$85 per barrel, contrasting sharply with the lower rates experienced before the conflict.

GEO-POLITICS

US-Israeli Conflict — The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has intensified, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, which typically sees about 20 million barrels per day flow. This disruption marks the largest in oil market history.

“Today Joseph joins us amid unprecedented turmoil in the Middle East…”—

Strait of Hormuz Impact — Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to approximately 2-3 million barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict, significantly affecting global oil availability.

“three million barrels going through the straits of Hormuz. these carriers can carry a million some two million barrels a day…”—

ECONOMY

Oil Demand Growth — Global oil demand is currently around 106 million barrels per day, increasing by 1.2 million barrels from last year, with emerging markets driving this growth despite a slowdown in OECD countries.

“>> Oh, my pleasure. I'm glad to be with you Anthony. Yeah, looking forward to it. So, as I saying, it's unprecedented time…”—

Russia's Oil Gains — Russia is economically benefiting from the current oil price surge, receiving approximately $80-$85 per barrel compared to $40 when oil was priced at $60 before the conflict.

“now with the price of oil for Brent over 100, they're getting you know probably 80 or $85 a barrel. So massive change in their own economic benefit…”—

Canada's Oil Production — Canada ranks as the fourth largest oil producer globally, with a production of 6.1 million barrels per day, gaining attention for its stable supply amid geopolitical tensions.

“There's a lot of opportunity in the sector. and you know we focus on the Canadian names that are both domestically listed and interlisted in the US or UK…”—

MARKETS

Brent Price Surge — Brent crude prices have surged above $100 due to supply disruptions from the conflict, with global supply down by millions of barrels daily in March.

“Today Joseph joins us amid unprecedented turmoil in the Middle East…”—

Oil Price Expectations — The forward curve for oil prices suggests that while current prices are elevated, expectations for late 2026 are significantly lower, leading to caution in energy stock valuations.

“little bit and now yeah, we've seen a little bit of a push where maybe it was already priced in…”—

FORECASTS

Potential Price Spike — If the conflict persists into April, oil prices could surpass the previous high of $119, with all-time nominal highs possible if the situation continues into summer 2026.

“can all be sold and so that is giving enough day-to-day to day for the IND, you know, for industries to function…”—

Inventory Concerns — Current oil inventory days are around 90; a decrease due to rising demand and falling supply could lead to higher oil prices.

“we went down to 79 days of inventory in in 2008. Normal inventories are between 88 and 92 days. We're about 90 days right now…”—

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

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