SpaceX IPO: Why This Hedge Fund Manager is Fading the Hype | Moez Kassam

If the DEA program proceeds and licenses are granted, removing 280E tax treatment could materially improve MSO balance sheets and produce large IRS refunds—an outcome the manager positioned for by increasing cannabis exposure (they are the second‑largest 13F holder of the MSOS ETF and cite a potential ~400% upside over a couple of years).

The crypto opportunity set is improving in 2026 amid clearer legislation and a friendlier administration, but success hinges on sentiment-aware timing—illustrated by the manager’s deployment of over $1 billion into digital asset treasuries last year and an exit when retail euphoria peaked; Bitcoin’s positive-but-not-euphoric backdrop and the fact that early lost coins reduce effective supply further support a scarcity-driven case.

The Middle East conflict has tightened shipping and energy flows, supporting oil- and shipping‑exposed equities, and this dynamic helps explain recent TSX outperformance led by gold and oil stocks—though crowding has prompted tactical trims until clearer directional signals arrive.

SpaceX’s private valuation and corporate storytelling create a high‑impact listing: management has folded AI assets (Cursor, XAI) into the group to bolster revenue narrative, while its gargantuan private market cap and an anticipated NASDAQ inclusion on the 10th trading day will force concentrated index/ETF buying—yet atypical lockups, founder/control dynamics and large paper gains create material early sell risks that can generate volatility.

AI is a genuine near‑term, revenue‑driving investment theme that companies are already monetizing (and in some cases using in public narratives), whereas deep technologies like quantum and certain nuclear applications remain multi‑year (roughly 5–10 year) opportunities and should be treated as long‑dated plays.