Present tense, future perfect: Redefining treasury for the…

PodcastHSBC Global ViewpointManish KohliSep 22

Treasury is increasingly expected to operate in a structurally volatile environment, with policy, geopolitics, and regulation reshaping trade and cash flows. The discussion emphasizes modernizing treasury around trusted, connected data and using AI with appropriate governance, while keeping accountability with people. Treasury can also inform business decisions earlier by assessing supply-chain, liquidity, currency, and funding implications, and by building resilience through scenario planning and adaptable operating models.

Risk Management Artificial Intelligence Supply Chains

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Key Takeaways

Manish Kohli says 95% of companies view volatility as structural, while Vivek Ramachandran links supply-chain, geopolitical, and choke-point risks to cash-flow volatility beyond FX and commodity exposure. With upstream supplier visibility often lacking, Ramachandran argues that resilience requires multiple scenarios, real-time visibility, adaptable operating models, and pre-agreed decision rights—not just liquidity headroom.

Manish Kohli argues treasury should inform enterprise choices continuously, showing the working-capital, FX, funding, and payment-timing implications before supplier or market changes are contracted. A supplier that remained cheaper after shipping added 23 days of transit, increasing inventory funding needs, extending the cash-conversion cycle, and creating additional FX risk.

Treasury automation remains incomplete: spreadsheets drive a third of treasury activity, fewer than 50% of core functions may be automated, and manual handoffs can create failure points. Manish Kohli says transformation should start with the decisions treasurers want to improve, while trusted, connected data and sound foundations should precede AI applications such as forecasting, reconciliation, fraud detection, and working-capital prioritization.

GEO-POLITICS

Structural Volatility — Manish Kohli says HSBC research found that 95% of companies view volatility as structural, driven by policy, geopolitics, and regulations reshaping trade corridors, cost structures, and the movement of data and capital. He describes volatility as an ongoing business environment, not a temporary event.

“I think first of all, the reality that we live in today, we do not believe volatility is an event to manage around…”—

TECHNOLOGY

Treasury Automation — A survey cited by Manish Kohli found that spreadsheets drive a third of treasury activity and fewer than 50% of core functions may be automated. He says manual handoffs should be treated as potential failure points, making operational latency a treasury vulnerability.

“Again, as part of our survey, we found out that spreadsheets drive a third of treasury activity…”—

Outcome-Led Transformation — Treasury transformation should start with the decisions treasurers want to improve, then work backward to the foundations that support them. It should not begin with technology simply because it is available.

“An intuitive way to start is to think about the art of the possible based upon the technology that is available…”—

AI And Digital Money — Manish Kohli says AI can support forecasting, reconciliation, fraud detection, and working-capital prioritization once treasury foundations are in place. He argues that data governance and judgment will distinguish treasury capabilities. Digital money and tokenized deposits, he says, should solve real liquidity or commercial problems rather than serve as novelties.

“And once those foundations are in place, then you can then overlay technology on top of that…”—

ECONOMY

Treasury's Strategic Role — Vivek Ramachandran says he expects treasury's role to grow and shift from a technical function toward cross-functional orchestration among finance, sales, procurement, and risk management in leading organizations. He qualifies this as partly a hope rather than a forecast.

“Maybe there's a bias in me saying it, but I do think the treasurer's role is going to become much, much more important…”—

MARKETS

Treasury's Decision Role — Manish Kohli argues that treasury should move from periodically mitigating risk to continuously informing enterprise choices. Before a supplier or market change is contracted, treasury should show the implications for working capital, foreign exchange, funding, and payment timing.

“We believe that it needs to move from periodically mitigating risk to continuously thinking about how the enterprise can make better choices…”—

Business Risk And Cash Flow — Vivek Ramachandran says treasury must understand supply-chain, geopolitical, and choke-point risks in greater detail. These sources of business volatility drive cash-flow volatility, beyond exchange-rate and commodity risk alone.

“So it's not just exchange rate risk or commodity risk. It's supply chain risk. It's geopolitical risk. It's choke points…”—

Scenario Planning — Vivek Ramachandran says no single planned scenario is likely to be right, but planning for multiple scenarios can help treasury identify its options. Resilience also requires adaptable operating models, real-time visibility, and pre-agreed decision rights—not just liquidity headroom—so treasury can see, decide, and act before disruption becomes a constraint.

“And scenario planning is never been more important because what you do know is whatever scenario you plan for is gonna be wrong…”—

Treasury And Structural Volatility

Manish says volatility is a lasting business environment, requiring treasury to assess the cash, currency, funding, and working-capital effects of business choices before they are made.

Scenario Planning For Resilience

Vivek highlights expanding supply-chain and geopolitical risks, while the guests argue that scenario planning, visibility, adaptable operations, automation, and control help treasury respond quickly.

Trade Flows And Supply-Chain Visibility

The guests describe how working-capital choices affect suppliers and explain that joining trade and cash-flow data can reveal supply-chain exposure and support better decisions.

Treasury Data And AI Governance

Manish recommends working backward from decisions that need improvement, fixing data and process foundations first, then applying AI with governance and human accountability.

Treasury's Strategic Business Role

Vivek expects treasury to become a cross-functional orchestrator and says business understanding and human judgment will matter even more as AI becomes widespread.

Building An Augmented Treasury

Manish urges treasurers to build trusted connected data, modernize payment, trade, and liquidity processes, and govern AI and digital money to create a faster, more strategic function.