How Will Bitcoin Do When the Business Cycle Ends?
The video discusses the historical performance of Bitcoin, noting that it tends to peak in the fourth quarter of post-halving years, with expectations for a similar trend in Q4 of 2025. However, it highlights a decline in social interest in cryptocurrencies and a slowdown in job growth, suggesting a potential economic downturn. The current late-cycle environment, characterized by underperformance of risk assets like Bitcoin compared to safer investments, along with indicators pointing towards an impending recession, raises concerns about Bitcoin's future performance as the business cycle nears its end.
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Bitcoin historically tops in Q4 of post-halving years, with previous peaks occurring in Q4 of 2013, 2017, and 2021, and is expected to do so again in Q4 of 2025.
Social interest in crypto has been declining since May 2021, with the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies also trending down since November 2021.
The labor market has added only 156,000 jobs over the last 12 months, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous years, which could foreshadow an economic downturn.
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Important Disclaimers
Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.
AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.
No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.
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