PodcastCommodity CultureAdam Burke

GOLD 'Absolutely' Headed to All-Time Highs This Year - We're in a New Paradigm

Discussion centers on an Iran‑linked energy shock—driven by effective Strait of Hormuz closure—that has lifted oil and inflation expectations and pressured gold by keeping rates higher than typical safe‑haven dynamics would suggest. Market structure is shifting: gold is trading strongly with a weakening inverse correlation to real yields, while miners have lagged spot gold despite record producer cash flows that could prompt M&A and re‑ratings. One Bullion's large Botswana package, high‑grade surface samples, funding position and imminent geophysics and drilling timeline provide concrete near‑term catalysts, and institutional demand plus bullish bank targets underpin further upside, with a larger 15–30% surge possible if the Iran conflict persists and growth weakens.

GoldEnergy MarketsInterest Rates

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Key Takeaways

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created an energy supply shock that pushed oil sharply higher, raised inflation expectations and increased the likelihood central banks keep rates elevated—a dynamic that has paradoxically muted gold's traditional safe‑haven bid even as spot prices have run strong.

Market structure for gold is shifting: its historical inverse correlation with real yields has weakened or turned positive and the metal is increasingly treated as a fiscal hedge, a change that—together with projected central bank buying (JPM >700 tonnes in 2026) and bullish bank year‑end targets (Goldman ~$5,400, UBS ~$5,900, JPM >$6,200)—supports a higher structural floor and meaningful upside.

Despite a strong spot gold move in 2025, majors and especially juniors have materially underperformed due to investor distrust from the 2008–2011 cycle, creating a valuation gap that could compress as producers print record cash and pursue M&A, driving re‑rating upside for well‑positioned juniors.

GEO-POLITICS

Hormuz Shock — The speaker says the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has produced an energy supply shock that pushed oil sharply higher, raised inflation expectations and increased the odds central banks keep rates elevated, a mix that has muted gold's typical safe‑haven response.

“But the Iranian conflict doesn't fit that t template really for one specific reason, and that's the Strait of Hormuz, right?”—

MARKETS

Gold Repricing — Gold has run strongly year‑over‑year (guest cites an all‑time high above ~$5,500/oz in January and a current level a little over $4,600/oz) while its historical inverse correlation with real yields has weakened or turned positive, suggesting gold is increasingly treated as a fiscal hedge and may have a higher structural floor.

“gold price hit an all-time high of over $5,500 an ounce back in late January and as of today I think we're trading a little over $4,600 an ounce as…”—

Miners Lag — Majors and juniors have underperformed spot gold—a gap attributed to investor distrust from the 2008–2011 cycle (dilution, balance‑sheet damage and poor capital allocation)—but producers are reporting record cash flow, which could spur M&A and re‑rating for well‑positioned juniors.

“Throughout 2025. While spot gold climbed over 60%, the majors only grew about 35% or so. And the juniors, they lagged even further…”—

FORECASTS

Bank Targets — The guest cites strong institutional demand—JPM projects >700 tonnes of central bank purchases in 2026—and bullish year‑end bank targets (Goldman ~$5,400/oz, UBS ~$5,900/oz, JPM >$6,200/oz), supporting further upside in gold.

“Even with the prices above $4,000 an ounce. JP Morgan currently projects over 700 tons of essential buying purchasing is going to happen here in 2026.”—

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Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

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