PodcastThe Wolf Of All StreetsScott Melker

Bitcoin CRASHES To 21-Month Low As Circle DUMPS 17%

The episode ties political developments and stablecoin policy to market dynamics: Trump's $1.44B crypto disclosures and the "Genius Act" debate sit alongside a 140‑firm OpenUSD consortium that could reshape issuer economics. Technological and business themes center on issuer float as the primary revenue source, Coinbase capturing much of USDC economics, Stripe's Bridge rollout, exchange‑controlled L2s, and miners shifting toward higher‑margin AI compute after a large Bitcoin difficulty drop. Market signals are mixed—on‑chain OG flows and ETF outflows coexist with technical and macro bottoming signs—while MicroStrategy's capital choices dominate discussion, with runway, dilution tradeoffs, and non‑spot alternatives framing the practical options.

Crypto MarketsStablecoinsFinancial RegulationMarket StructureBlockchainBase Metals

Preview · 14 more points in the app

Read the Full Summary

Key Takeaways

Trump's 2025 filing discloses roughly $1.44B in crypto‑related receipts—including $635.1M in memecoin transaction fees, $236.3M from World Liberty token sales and ~ $197M from sale of an ownership interest in a USD1 stablecoin venture—with the memecoin's value listed as "not readily ascertainable," and speakers say the memecoin rollout has revived anti‑crypto political opposition while proposed legislative language (the so‑called "Genius Act") effectively codifies Bank Secrecy Act surveillance and restricts passing yield to customers.

Issuer economics for stablecoins are dominated by float—custodying and investing customer balances accounts for over 90% (some say ~99%) of issuer revenue—so new entrants like OpenUSD (≈140 firms) face steep scale and economics challenges against incumbents (Tether ≈$180B, Circle ≈$75B), and legal limits on passing yield or extending prohibitions to third parties would further compress the revenue pool available to issuers or consortiums.

Coinbase captured the bulk of USDC‑linked economics in 2024—cited at about $98M, roughly half of Circle's revenue—so Coinbase "technically makes more on USDC than USDC does," and the August renewal of that commercial arrangement creates concentration and counterparty risk for stablecoin issuers who rely on float income.

Stripe's acquisition of Bridge for "over a billion dollars" with an initial rollout on Solana and Stripe's Tempo chain points to a Stripe‑centered, chain‑agnostic distribution strategy, which, together with exchange‑controlled L2 rollouts (e.g., expected Robinhood chain and Coinbase's L2), implies distribution, custody and even tokenized‑securities hosting could concentrate within large platform operators.

GEO-POLITICS

Trump Disclosures — The filing shows Trump reported roughly $1.44B in 2025 crypto-related receipts, including $635.1M in memecoin transaction fees, $236.3M from World Liberty token sales, and about $197M from sale of an ownership interest in a USD1 stablecoin venture. The filing lists the memecoin's value as "not readily ascertainable," and speakers say the memecoin rollout has revived anti-crypto political opposition.

“Guys saw it, right? Trump reports at least 1.4 4 billion in 2025 crypto earnings. Now, let's talk about where that money came from.”—

TECHNOLOGY

Issuer Float — Hosts emphasize USDC/USDT are product wrappers while the real issuer revenue comes from the float—custodying and investing customer balances. That float accounted for over 90% (some say ~99%) of issuer revenue in recent reporting periods.

“So, as you know, USDC, USDT, those are the product, but the business model is the float.”—

Coinbase Capture — Speakers note Coinbase captured a majority of the income tied to USDC in 2024, cited as about $98M or roughly half of Circle's revenue. The commercial arrangement is up for renewal in August, creating concentration and contract risk for issuers.

“Now, interestingly, for Circle specifically, Coinbase makes 100% of the revenue on that income on Coinbase's platform and about 50% of the revenue off platform.”—

Stripe Rollout — Hosts note Bridge was bought by Stripe for "over a billion dollars," with an initial rollout expected first on Solana and Stripe's Tempo chain, then on other chains. That implies a Stripe-centered but chain-agnostic distribution approach.

“The CEO of bridge which was the company that was bought for over a billion dollars by Stripe who's one of the biggest payment companies right and this is going…”—

MARKETS

OpenUSD Entry — OpenUSD, an 'open standard' stablecoin backed by roughly 140 large companies, is a major new entrant. But the market is dominated by incumbents—Tether (~$180B) and Circle (~$75B)—so meaningful market share gains will be difficult and issuer economics face downward pressure.

“Circle took a breather, but opening introducing OpenUSD here. If you're wondering what this is, it's a pretty big deal.”—

On-chain Flows — On-chain metrics show large movement of five-plus-year 'OG' coins and the lowest net institutional-adoption versus OG-distribution recently. ETF net outflows have accelerated even as long-term holder balances and realized cap for LTHs reach highs, signalling simultaneous selling from older cohorts and continued long-term accumulation.

“Last week was the lowest net flow in our institutional adoption vers OG distribution chart, pushing the cumulative distribution since October 2025 all-time high to 154,169 Bitcoin.”—

Bottoming Signals — Speakers present multiple technical and macro signals: multi-timeframe RSI bullish divergences, a confirmed weekly divergence, weekly/monthly moving-average support, a high share of coins back in profit, low Fear & Greed, and miner capitulation. They argue these together suggest a materially higher short-term price floor than 2022 lows.

“12-hour, the big one, and another little one forming right now that's yet to confirm. Take a look at the daily…”—

Trump Crypto Disclosures

Host reviews Trump's 2025 crypto disclosure — $1.44 billion in reported crypto earnings including memecoin fees, token sales, and stablecoin interests.

OpenUSD Consortium

Introduction of OpenUSD, a 140‑company stablecoin consortium including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe and Coinbase, and why it matters to Circle stock.

Stablecoin Float Economics

Explains the issuer 'float' business model where custody yield is primary revenue and how Coinbase captures much of USDC economics.

Genius Act Implications

Discussion of the Genius Act/Clarity Act rules restricting issuers from passing yield and how third parties like exchanges can currently capture rewards.

Consortium Structure & Chains

Breakdown of OpenUSD's leadership, notable absences (Circle, Tether), and planned chain‑agnostic rollout via Stripe/Tempo and Solana.

Technical Bottom Signals

Host walks through RSI divergences across multiple timeframes and other technical indicators that suggest a potential market bottom.

Galaxy's Take

Guest (Galaxy analyst) joins to provide measured skepticism on consortium stablecoins and notes the lack of a whitepaper and historical precedents.

Coinbase's Position

Explores Coinbase's role capturing USDC economics, the competitive pressure on issuer yield, and a likely race to the bottom on retained float.

On‑Chain Flows & ETFs

Analysis of institutional ETF flows versus long‑dormant 'OG' coin movements, showing how net distributions have tracked price action.

Long‑Term Holder Dynamics

Discussion of long‑term holder statistics, the 155‑day heuristic, realized cap, and how a rising floor reflects durable demand.

MicroStrategy Capital Choices

Deep dive on MicroStrategy's options: runway, dilution via ATM, buybacks, and why selling large Bitcoin holdings now could harm shareholder value.

Miners Shift To AI

Covers the miner capitulation signal: major downward difficulty adjustment, lower hash rate, and the trend of miners pivoting to higher‑margin AI compute.

Closing Remarks

Final wrap: calmer market tone after recent announcements, broader token/gpu research preview, and sign‑off between host and guest.

Related Episodes

Important Disclaimers

Not Investment Advice: For education only — not financial, tax or legal advice.

AI-Generated: Made by AI from source transcripts and may contain errors.

No Guarantees: Past performance does not predict future results; investing carries risk.

Our Commentary · Request Removal